---
title: "Freecase 9 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Freecase 9 ($94.78) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 69.92% from 21 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase9
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Freecase 9](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase9)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Freecase 9

A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase9?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase9?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase9) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase9?window=all)

Price · $94.78

Advertised RTP · 69.92% · EV $66.27 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase9?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase9?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase9) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase9?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $752 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $488 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $380 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $311 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 294 | $297 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $287 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $233 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $225 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $204 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $197 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $156 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $120 | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $118 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $97.73 | 12.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $93.52 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $86.93 | 12.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $82.49 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 12.8% | $54.96 | 10.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-minimal-wear) | 11.6% | $17.14 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 17.1% | $13.00 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-factory-new) | 13.0% | $8.51 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/freecase9/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=freecase9)

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) [sMOGrc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/sMOGrc) $94.78 $13.00 0.14x 2026-11-07 16:25 UTC

[MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-factory-new) [sMOGrc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/sMOGrc) $94.78 $8.51 0.09x 2026-11-07 16:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) [sever](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/sever) $94.78 $13.00 0.14x 2026-11-07 16:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) [sever](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/sever) $94.78 $13.00 0.14x 2026-11-07 16:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) [Arny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Arny) $94.78 $13.00 0.14x 2026-11-07 15:05 UTC

[MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-factory-new) [Youngmon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Youngmon) $94.78 $8.51 0.09x 2026-11-07 13:29 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) [Youngmon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Youngmon) $94.78 $54.96 0.58x 2026-11-07 13:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Reactor (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-minimal-wear) [Nearkai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Nearkai) $94.78 $17.14 0.18x 2026-11-07 12:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) [ENOT/smlpe13.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ENOT%2Fsmlpe13.) $94.78 $13.00 0.14x 2026-11-07 12:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) [jorener21](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/jorener21) $94.78 $13.00 0.14x 2026-11-07 12:10 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $94.78 | 69.92% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $94.78 | 70.22% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 56.2% legendary 0.0% classified 0.0% covert knife 0.8% rare 1.4% mil spec 11.6% pink 17.1% uncommon 13.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 69.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $69.92 on average: an expected loss of $30.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt