---
title: "Fresh case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fresh ($6.58) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.95% from 49 items with odds, observed 81.27% over 213 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fresh
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Fresh](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fresh)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Fresh

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fresh?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fresh?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fresh) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fresh?window=all)

Price · $6.58

Advertised RTP · 93.95% · EV $6.18 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.27% · 213 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 40 openings · below min

7 days · 78.56% ±27.69 180 openings

30 days · 81.27% ±25.47 213 openings

since tracking started · 81.27% ±25.47 213 openings

31.0% 90.3% 149.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fresh?window=24h) | 40 | 90.16% ±58.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fresh?window=7d) | 180 | 78.56% ±27.7 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fresh) | 213 | 81.27% ±25.5 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fresh?window=all) | 213 | 81.27% ±25.5 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 213 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $6,856 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,029 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,540 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,135 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,949 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,814 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,382 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,234 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,177 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $906 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $629 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $518 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 142,857 | $449 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71,429 | $304 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45,455 | $271 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 28,571 | $215 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 13,333 | $162 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 11,364 | $145 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 5,405 | $118 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-dragon-fists-field-tested) | 1 in 3,953 | $99.73 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,887 | $76.12 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,099 | $65.80 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 1,129 | $62.27 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 448 | $46.47 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) | 1 in 531 | $46.47 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 241 | $37.73 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 203 | $35.49 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 152 | $26.22 | 2.8% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.85× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $24.21 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $16.23 | 3.7% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $14.95 | 4.4% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $13.73 | 4.7% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $10.65 | 5.0% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $9.13 | 5.6% | 6 | 8.0 | 0.75× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $8.64 | 5.7% | 13 | 8.7 | 1.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $8.14 | 7.9% | 16 | 12.7 | 1.26× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $6.18 | 6.8% | 11 | 14.6 | 0.76× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $5.96 | 6.6% | 17 | 14.5 | 1.17× |
| [Dragomir \| Sabre agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dragomir-sabre) | 1 in 15 | $5.26 | 5.5% | 15 | 13.9 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $4.53 | 4.6% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $4.07 | 4.1% | 17 | 13.3 | 1.28× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $3.71 | 3.6% | 15 | 12.9 | 1.16× |
| [Nova \| Gila (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-gila-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $3.39 | 3.3% | 12 | 12.6 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $3.06 | 2.8% | 18 | 12.2 | 1.48× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $2.78 | 2.6% | 9 | 12.1 | 0.74× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.02 | 1.7% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $1.15 | 0.9% | 9 | 9.9 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.13 | 0.8% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.79 | 0.5% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.89× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/fresh/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=fresh)

[MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $6.58 $3.06 0.47x 2026-11-10 19:46 UTC

[Dragomir | Sabre agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dragomir-sabre) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $6.58 $5.26 0.80x 2026-11-10 19:46 UTC

[MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $6.58 $3.06 0.47x 2026-11-10 18:30 UTC

[Dragomir | Sabre agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dragomir-sabre) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $6.58 $5.26 0.80x 2026-11-10 18:29 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $6.58 $1.13 0.17x 2026-11-10 18:28 UTC

[MP9 | Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $6.58 $8.64 1.31x 2026-11-10 18:27 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $6.58 $5.96 0.91x 2026-11-10 18:27 UTC

[XM1014 | Entombed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $6.58 $3.71 0.56x 2026-11-10 18:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $6.58 $4.53 0.69x 2026-11-10 18:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Entombed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $6.58 $3.71 0.56x 2026-11-10 18:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $6.58 | 93.95% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $6.65 | 92.97% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.65 | 94.28% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% contraband 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% legendary 0.0% classified 25.5% gold 0.0% covert knife 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% sunny 0.0% epic 0.0% rare 0.1% Immortal 0.1% #ffd700 0.3% Legendary 3.1% Ancient 0.4% red 0.5% uncommon 7.4% restricted 23.4% pink 17.7% violet 6.5% #d32ce6 6.2% #8847ff 8.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.95 on average: an expected loss of $6.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt