---
title: "Fri 13 mirror case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fri 13 mirror ($4.13) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 40 items with odds, observed 89.76% over 355 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fri13-mirror
rendered: 2026-11-12T22:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Fri 13 mirror](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fri13-mirror)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Fri 13 mirror

A case on CSGORUN (friday13), first seen 12 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fri13-mirror?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fri13-mirror?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fri13-mirror) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fri13-mirror?window=all)

Price · $4.13

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $3.88 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.76% · 355 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.76% ±8.74 355 openings

7 days · 89.76% ±8.74 355 openings

30 days · 89.76% ±8.74 355 openings

since tracking started · 89.76% ±8.74 355 openings

80.5% 89.8% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fri13-mirror?window=24h) | 355 | 89.76% ±8.74 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fri13-mirror?window=7d) | 355 | 89.76% ±8.74 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fri13-mirror) | 355 | 89.76% ±8.74 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fri13-mirror?window=all) | 355 | 89.76% ±8.74 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 584 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $416 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $289 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $223 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $163 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52,632 | $117 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23,256 | $88.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $67.17 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 4,717 | $52.30 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,179 | $40.45 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 1,056 | $31.76 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 717 | $27.92 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-factory-new) | 1 in 343 | $21.83 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 139 | $14.29 | 2.6% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× |
| [MAG-7 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $13.19 | 2.9% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $10.28 | 3.7% | 10 | 8.1 | 1.23× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $9.09 | 4.2% | 14 | 10.4 | 1.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $7.95 | 4.8% | 9 | 13.6 | 0.66× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $7.07 | 5.4% | 17 | 17.2 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $6.29 | 6.0% | 19 | 21.7 | 0.88× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.46 | 6.9% | 29 | 28.8 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.41 | 7.0% | 37 | 29.3 | 1.26× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $5.30 | 7.1% | 35 | 30.6 | 1.15× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-mosaico-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.97 | 7.6% | 36 | 34.7 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $4.88 | 7.8% | 44 | 36.0 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $4.19 | 9.0% | 39 | 48.9 | 0.80× |
| [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $2.53 | 2.3% | 18 | 20.5 | 0.88× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $2.51 | 2.3% | 24 | 20.5 | 1.17× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.36 | 2.1% | 19 | 20.4 | 0.93× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.19 | 2.0% | 22 | 20.2 | 1.09× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.17 | 1.9% | 18 | 20.2 | 0.89× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.83 | 1.6% | 21 | 19.9 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.71 | 1.5% | 17 | 19.8 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $1.63 | 1.4% | 14 | 19.7 | 0.71× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.25 | 1.1% | 20 | 19.3 | 1.04× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $1.13 | 1.0% | 16 | 19.1 | 0.84× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.06 | 0.9% | 15 | 19.0 | 0.79× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $1.01 | 0.8% | 10 | 18.9 | 0.53× |
| [MP9 \| Broken Record (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-broken-record-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $0.70 | 0.6% | 31 | 18.3 | 1.69× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $0.70 | 0.6% | 17 | 18.3 | 0.93× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $0.60 | 0.5% | 26 | 18.0 | 1.44× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/fri13_mirror/show`, 12 Nov, 19:57 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=fri13-mirror)

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) [ищудевушку](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B8%D1%89%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D1%83) $4.13 $5.41 1.31x 2026-11-12 22:07 UTC

[Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) [stilldead'](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/stilldead') $4.13 $5.46 1.32x 2026-11-12 22:04 UTC

[MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) [ищудевушку](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B8%D1%89%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D1%83) $4.13 $4.88 1.18x 2026-11-12 22:04 UTC

[SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [Kms po kms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Kms%20po%20kms) $4.13 $1.25 0.30x 2026-11-12 21:57 UTC

[Nova | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [Spaceman](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Spaceman) $4.13 $6.29 1.52x 2026-11-12 21:56 UTC

[Galil AR | Shattered (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-field-tested) [ищудевушку](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B8%D1%89%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D1%83) $4.13 $5.30 1.28x 2026-11-12 21:50 UTC

[SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) [bumdlebor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bumdlebor) $4.13 $1.13 0.27x 2026-11-12 21:49 UTC

[Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) [bumdlebor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bumdlebor) $4.13 $5.46 1.32x 2026-11-12 21:49 UTC

[MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-field-tested) [Женя Пригожин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%96%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%8F%20%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B6%D0%B8%D0%BD) $4.13 $2.19 0.53x 2026-11-12 21:30 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) [Женя Пригожин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%96%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%8F%20%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B6%D0%B8%D0%BD) $4.13 $5.41 1.31x 2026-11-12 21:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 17:28 UTC | $4.13 | 94.00% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.2% covert 0.0% mil spec 12.0% restricted 15.7% extraordinary 0.0% red 0.1% gold 0.0% rare 0.3% Legendary 11.4% industrial 0.8% pink 6.3% Restricted 3.7% blue 5.0% Rare 5.2% Industrial Grade 5.9% Mythical 6.6% violet 6.7% Consumer Grade 3.5% light blue 3.4% #8847ff 6.7% #4b69ff 3.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt