---
title: "Fubuki case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fubuki ($0.15) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.16% from 49 items with odds, observed 96.61% over 9,195 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fubuki
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Fubuki](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fubuki)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Fubuki

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fubuki?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fubuki?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fubuki) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fubuki?window=all)

Price · $0.15

Advertised RTP · 93.16% · EV $0.14 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.61% · 9,195 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.80% ±58.80 112 openings

7 days · 93.89% ±7.23 7,416 openings

30 days · 96.61% ±6.49 9,195 openings

since tracking started · 96.61% ±6.49 9,195 openings

23.5% 82.7% 142.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fubuki?window=24h) | 112 | 82.80% ±58.8 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fubuki?window=7d) | 7,416 | 93.89% ±7.23 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fubuki) | 9,195 | 96.61% ±6.49 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fubuki?window=all) | 9,195 | 96.61% ±6.49 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,198 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $438 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $76.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $43.13 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $35.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $31.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $28.59 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 333,333 | $21.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,667 | $13.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-well-worn) | 1 in 142,857 | $13.60 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,000 | $11.79 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $10.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $3.69 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,408 | $3.46 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) | 1 in 12,195 | $3.02 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M249 \| Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 18,182 | $2.84 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Surfwood (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-well-worn) | 1 in 18,182 | $2.37 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 814 | $1.14 | 1.0% | 14 | 11.3 | 1.24× |
| [XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-well-worn) | 1 in 908 | $1.10 | 0.9% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 433 | $0.95 | 1.6% | 22 | 21.2 | 1.04× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 421 | $0.87 | 1.5% | 15 | 21.9 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 203 | $0.64 | 2.3% | 51 | 45.3 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-well-worn) | 1 in 224 | $0.63 | 2.0% | 49 | 41.1 | 1.19× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 159 | $0.59 | 2.6% | 65 | 57.7 | 1.13× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $0.48 | 3.0% | 84 | 79.5 | 1.06× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $0.40 | 2.7% | 100 | 85.5 | 1.17× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.38 | 2.7% | 109 | 92.3 | 1.18× |
| [Souvenir P90 \| Verdant Growth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $0.29 | 4.3% | 182 | 191.3 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $0.26 | 3.4% | 167 | 169.9 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $0.26 | 2.2% | 101 | 108.8 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.23 | 3.6% | 234 | 203.7 | 1.15× |
| [Galil AR \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-green-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.20 | 5.4% | 355 | 344.6 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-garter-9-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.16 | 5.2% | 410 | 416.1 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.15 | 5.4% | 440 | 458.6 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| NV (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-nv-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.15 | 5.4% | 433 | 458.6 | 0.94× |
| [P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coral-halftone-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.15 | 4.9% | 407 | 416.1 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.15 | 4.4% | 384 | 377.6 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Marsh (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.14 | 5.0% | 452 | 455.7 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Mustard Gas (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-mustard-gas-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.13 | 4.6% | 446 | 455.7 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.13 | 4.6% | 446 | 455.7 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.09 | 3.1% | 460 | 445.5 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.08 | 2.7% | 410 | 426.3 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Explosive Strength sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-explosive-strength) | 1 in 21 | $0.08 | 2.7% | 450 | 432.0 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.08 | 2.8% | 442 | 445.5 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Agent Select sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-agent-select) | 1 in 21 | $0.07 | 2.4% | 431 | 432.0 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.06 | 2.0% | 401 | 426.3 | 0.94× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.06 | 2.0% | 433 | 432.0 | 1.00× |
| [Negev \| Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.05 | 1.6% | 408 | 401.5 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Mustard Gas (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-mustard-gas-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.02 | 0.6% | 378 | 387.8 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.01 | 0.3% | 404 | 387.8 | 1.04× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/fubuki/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) [ai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ai) $0.15 $28.59 190.6x 2026-11-04 06:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=fubuki)

[Sticker | Explosive Strength sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-explosive-strength) [\_КАХА\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%90_) $0.15 $0.08 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC

[Sticker | Agent Select sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-agent-select) [905033152](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/905033152) $0.15 $0.07 0.47x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[P2000 | Coral Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coral-halftone-field-tested) [905033152](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/905033152) $0.15 $0.15 1.00x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) [905033152](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/905033152) $0.15 $0.06 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:03 UTC

[Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-garter-9-factory-new) [905033152](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/905033152) $0.15 $0.16 1.07x 2026-11-11 12:03 UTC

[MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-well-worn) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.15 $0.08 0.53x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC

[P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-mustard-gas-factory-new) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.15 $0.13 0.87x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC

[P2000 | Marsh (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-factory-new) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.15 $0.14 0.93x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC

[Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.15 $0.05 0.33x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC

[P90 | Mustard Gas (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-mustard-gas-battle-scarred) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.15 $0.02 0.13x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.15 | 93.16% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.15 | 97.64% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% Covert 0.0% Immortal 0.0% #4b69ff 19.6% restricted 0.5% pink 0.0% #d32ce6 0.0% industrial 25.5% classified 0.0% Mythical 0.0% rare 0.0% consumer 4.2% blue 0.1% milspec 1.3% violet 1.2% Rare 13.2% Uncommon 11.8% #5e98d9 13.2% common 5.0% blueLight 4.4% best hit $28.59 (190.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.16 on average: an expected loss of $6.84 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt