---
title: "Fulltank fuel case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fulltank fuel ($3.85) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.87% from 42 items with odds, observed 96.28% over 346 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fulltank-fuel
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Fulltank fuel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fulltank-fuel)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Fulltank fuel

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fulltank-fuel?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fulltank-fuel?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fulltank-fuel) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fulltank-fuel?window=all)

Price · $3.85

Advertised RTP · 93.87% · EV $3.61 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.28% · 346 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 78 openings · below min

30 days · 96.28% ±17.86 346 openings

since tracking started · 96.28% ±17.86 346 openings

-0.5% 192.0% 384.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fulltank-fuel?window=24h) | 3 | 189.09% ±194.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fulltank-fuel?window=7d) | 78 | 81.77% ±38.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fulltank-fuel) | 346 | 96.28% ±17.9 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fulltank-fuel?window=all) | 346 | 96.28% ±17.9 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 346 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,618 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-wave-chaser-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,068 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,874 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,382 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $975 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $842 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $736 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $588 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $400 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $337 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $331 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $200 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 32,258 | $176 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 34,483 | $165 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 14,925 | $131 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-plum-quill-field-tested) | 1 in 8,621 | $102 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) | 1 in 1,269 | $46.47 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 750 | $38.65 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) | 1 in 393 | $32.34 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 330 | $26.22 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.91× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 202 | $21.91 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-factory-new) | 1 in 204 | $21.83 | 3.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $14.29 | 5.7% | 10 | 5.0 | 1.99× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $9.02 | 7.1% | 8 | 9.8 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $7.13 | 8.1% | 23 | 14.3 | 1.61× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $5.74 | 7.3% | 20 | 15.8 | 1.27× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $5.57 | 8.7% | 19 | 19.5 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $4.69 | 8.4% | 18 | 22.4 | 0.80× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $4.45 | 9.4% | 30 | 26.5 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.70 | 5.8% | 23 | 26.9 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $2.42 | 4.9% | 31 | 25.2 | 1.23× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $2.19 | 4.2% | 24 | 23.8 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $2.09 | 3.8% | 26 | 22.6 | 1.15× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.98 | 3.5% | 25 | 21.8 | 1.14× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.59 | 2.4% | 16 | 18.7 | 0.86× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.30 | 1.7% | 13 | 16.3 | 0.80× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $1.18 | 1.5% | 11 | 16.2 | 0.68× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.95 | 1.0% | 11 | 13.3 | 0.82× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $0.85 | 0.8% | 9 | 11.3 | 0.79× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.61 | 0.5% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [Nova \| Ocular (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.59 | 0.5% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.51 | 0.4% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.75× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/fulltank_fuel/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=fulltank-fuel)

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $3.85 $14.29 3.71x 2026-11-11 01:56 UTC

[P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $3.85 $5.57 1.45x 2026-11-11 01:56 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $3.85 $1.98 0.51x 2026-11-11 01:56 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $3.85 $0.95 0.25x 2026-11-09 16:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Breakthrough (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $3.85 $2.42 0.63x 2026-11-09 16:30 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $3.85 $2.19 0.57x 2026-11-09 16:30 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $3.85 $4.45 1.16x 2026-11-09 16:30 UTC

[MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $3.85 $0.85 0.22x 2026-11-09 13:19 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $3.85 $2.19 0.57x 2026-11-09 13:19 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $3.85 $2.09 0.54x 2026-11-09 13:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.85 | 93.87% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.94 | 91.73% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.94 | 92.14% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% legendary 0.0% classified 4.6% extraordinary 0.0% Covert 0.0% Immortal 0.0% Legendary 1.5% rare 0.6% pink 18.2% uncommon 3.1% Mythical 14.2% blue 10.8% violet 34.1% restricted 6.3% #8847ff 3.9% #4b69ff 2.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.87 on average: an expected loss of $6.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt