---
title: "Galil case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Galil ($0.79) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.14% from 36 items with odds, observed 103.81% over 291 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/galil
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Galil](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/galil)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Galil

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/galil?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/galil?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/galil) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/galil?window=all)

Price · $0.79

Advertised RTP · 93.14% · EV $0.74 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 103.81% · 291 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 7 openings · below min

7 days · 103.81% ±13.81 291 openings

30 days · 103.81% ±13.81 291 openings

since tracking started · 103.81% ±13.81 291 openings

-0.5% 74.3% 149.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/galil?window=24h) | 7 | 59.13% ±89.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/galil?window=7d) | 291 | 103.81% ±13.8 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/galil) | 291 | 103.81% ±13.8 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/galil?window=all) | 291 | 103.81% ±13.8 | +1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 385 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $119 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,000 | $83.57 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62,500 | $51.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 31,250 | $30.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) | 1 in 15,385 | $26.66 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,130 | $19.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 3,279 | $13.33 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,460 | $9.58 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 637 | $7.19 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Hunting Blind (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-hunting-blind-factory-new) | 1 in 368 | $5.90 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.91× |
| [Galil AR \| Kami (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-factory-new) | 1 in 244 | $4.23 | 2.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $3.34 | 4.4% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.61× |
| [Galil AR \| Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $2.69 | 4.6% | 8 | 4.8 | 1.66× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $2.06 | 5.2% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $1.73 | 5.6% | 12 | 9.1 | 1.32× |
| [Galil AR \| Galigator (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $1.55 | 6.7% | 10 | 12.2 | 0.82× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.39 | 7.0% | 16 | 14.2 | 1.13× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.17 | 6.8% | 25 | 16.4 | 1.53× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.95 | 9.3% | 29 | 27.8 | 1.04× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.85 | 6.0% | 21 | 20.0 | 1.05× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.81 | 8.9% | 28 | 31.0 | 0.90× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.71 | 3.9% | 13 | 15.7 | 0.83× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.64 | 3.5% | 14 | 15.7 | 0.89× |
| [Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-metallic-squeezer-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.58 | 3.2% | 8 | 15.7 | 0.51× |
| [Galil AR \| Akoben (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-akoben-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 | 2.5% | 20 | 15.7 | 1.28× |
| [Galil AR \| NV (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-nv-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 | 2.3% | 18 | 15.7 | 1.15× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.36 | 2.0% | 7 | 15.7 | 0.45× |
| [Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-metallic-squeezer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.31 | 1.7% | 22 | 15.7 | 1.41× |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.28 | 1.5% | 11 | 15.7 | 0.70× |
| [Galil AR \| Akoben (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-akoben-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.26 | 1.4% | 15 | 15.7 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.21 | 1.2% | 15 | 15.7 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-green-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.20 | 1.1% | 20 | 15.7 | 1.28× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.17 | 0.9% | 12 | 15.7 | 0.77× |
| [Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-acid-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.13 | 0.7% | 12 | 15.7 | 0.77× |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.12 | 0.7% | 19 | 15.7 | 1.21× |
| [Galil AR \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.07 | 0.4% | 12 | 15.7 | 0.77× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/galil/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=galil)

[Galil AR | Destroyer (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-minimal-wear) [Vinilov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Vinilov) $0.79 $0.12 0.15x 2026-11-11 01:20 UTC

[Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-minimal-wear) [-RuthlesZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/-RuthlesZ) $0.79 $0.81 1.03x 2026-11-10 18:53 UTC

[Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-minimal-wear) [.....](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.....) $0.79 $0.81 1.03x 2026-11-10 17:12 UTC

[Galil AR | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-field-tested) [.....](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.....) $0.79 $0.07 0.09x 2026-11-10 17:12 UTC

[Galil AR | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-green-apple-factory-new) [.....](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.....) $0.79 $0.20 0.25x 2026-11-10 17:12 UTC

[Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) [.....](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.....) $0.79 $0.95 1.20x 2026-11-10 17:12 UTC

[Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-metallic-squeezer-minimal-wear) [nashiteko](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/nashiteko) $0.79 $0.31 0.39x 2026-11-10 16:06 UTC

[Galil AR | NV (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-nv-factory-new) [UZB1\_Edvard](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/UZB1_Edvard) $0.79 $0.41 0.52x 2026-11-10 12:27 UTC

[Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-field-tested) [UZB1\_Edvard](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/UZB1_Edvard) $0.79 $0.21 0.27x 2026-11-10 12:26 UTC

[Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) [UZB1\_Edvard](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/UZB1_Edvard) $0.79 $0.95 1.20x 2026-11-10 12:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.79 | 93.14% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.79 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 9.7% Mythical 17.2% Mil Spec Grade 0.0% rare 0.0% classified 0.0% mil spec 8.2% Legendary 0.2% consumer 0.3% #4b69ff 14.6% Rare 5.0% milspec 12.4% blue 8.1% light blue 4.1% violet 4.1% #5e98d9 8.1% blueLight 4.1% industrial 4.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.14 on average: an expected loss of $6.86 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt