---
title: "Gallery case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Gallery ($3.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.25% from 36 items with odds, observed 86.62% over 114 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gallery
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Gallery](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gallery)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Gallery

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gallery?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gallery?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gallery) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gallery?window=all)

Price · $3.49

Advertised RTP · 91.25% · EV $3.18 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.62% · 114 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 55.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 114 openings · below min

30 days · 114 openings · below min

since tracking started · 114 openings · below min

-0.5% 84.5% 169.5%

**Small sample.** 114 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gallery?window=24h) | 4 | 81.73% ±86.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gallery?window=7d) | 114 | 86.62% ±16.7 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gallery) | 114 | 86.62% ±16.7 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gallery?window=all) | 114 | 86.62% ±16.7 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 114 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $405 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $200 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,667 | $193 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 90,909 | $136 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 41,667 | $108 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13,333 | $71.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 3,759 | $48.53 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 2,825 | $40.72 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 881 | $28.08 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 499 | $21.26 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-factory-new) | 1 in 192 | $15.85 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 102 | $11.53 | 3.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $9.61 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $9.46 | 4.9% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $6.27 | 5.5% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $6.20 | 6.1% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $4.83 | 8.4% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.79× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $4.76 | 8.1% | 10 | 6.2 | 1.62× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $4.15 | 8.0% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $3.89 | 9.8% | 7 | 9.2 | 0.76× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $3.67 | 9.7% | 6 | 9.6 | 0.62× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $2.98 | 3.5% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.47× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Tango (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-tango-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $2.59 | 3.0% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.65× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $2.45 | 2.9% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $2.44 | 2.8% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $2.40 | 2.8% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.65× |
| [AUG \| Luxe Trim (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-luxe-trim-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.38 | 1.6% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [M249 \| Hypnosis (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-hypnosis-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.29 | 1.5% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $1.18 | 1.4% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.65× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.12 | 1.3% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.10 | 1.3% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.97 | 1.1% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.65× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.86 | 1.0% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.55 | 0.6% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.53 | 0.6% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.47× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Tango (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-tango-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.51 | 0.6% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.47× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/gallery/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=gallery)

[USP-S | 27 (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $3.49 $4.76 1.36x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $3.49 $1.12 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[AUG | Luxe Trim (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-luxe-trim-factory-new) [f1ddlest1cks!](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/f1ddlest1cks!) $3.49 $1.38 0.40x 2026-11-11 05:25 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-factory-new) [bus1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bus1k) $3.49 $4.15 1.19x 2026-11-10 14:52 UTC

[P90 | Randy Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-minimal-wear) [Xlor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Xlor) $3.49 $1.18 0.34x 2026-11-10 00:24 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) [Xlor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Xlor) $3.49 $1.10 0.32x 2026-11-10 00:24 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) [Xlor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Xlor) $3.49 $3.89 1.11x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $3.49 $0.97 0.28x 2026-11-09 08:07 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-minimal-wear) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $3.49 $0.53 0.15x 2026-11-09 08:06 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Tango (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-tango-factory-new) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $3.49 $2.59 0.74x 2026-11-09 08:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $3.49 | 91.25% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.49 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% Immortal 0.0% epic 0.0% covert knife 0.0% rare 2.8% red 0.1% uncommon 5.6% #d32ce6 0.5% Legendary 1.0% #8847ff 4.9% violet 27.9% blue 19.0% Mythical 12.1% restricted 11.2% #4b69ff 7.4% milspec 7.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.25 on average: an expected loss of $8.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt