--- title: "Gamma case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Gamma ($1.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.56% from 36 items with odds, observed 101.49% over 402 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Gamma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Gamma A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma?window=all) Price · $1.49 Advertised RTP · 92.56% · EV $1.38 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.49% · 402 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 101.49% ±9.25 402 openings 30 days · 101.49% ±9.25 402 openings since tracking started · 101.49% ±9.25 402 openings 11.0% 73.5% 136.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma?window=24h) | 9 | 73.38% ±61.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma?window=7d) | 402 | 101.49% ±9.25 | +1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma) | 402 | 101.49% ±9.25 | +1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma?window=all) | 402 | 101.49% ±9.25 | +1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 537 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $219 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $113 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $109 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $72.25 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58,824 | $57.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 45,455 | $50.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 3,788 | $21.14 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,165 | $19.79 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 910 | $13.00 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 815 | $12.58 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) | 1 in 155 | $6.84 | 3.2% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-factory-new) | 1 in 139 | $6.00 | 3.1% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.29× | | [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-factory-new) | 1 in 101 | $5.18 | 3.7% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.75× | | [PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $4.11 | 4.2% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.18× | | [AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $3.80 | 4.0% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.16× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.45 | 7.7% | 22 | 23.2 | 0.95× | | [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $2.37 | 6.0% | 22 | 18.7 | 1.18× | | [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $2.01 | 7.1% | 24 | 26.2 | 0.92× | | [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.84 | 8.5% | 25 | 34.3 | 0.73× | | [AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.83 | 8.5% | 38 | 34.3 | 1.11× | | [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.54 | 9.5% | 56 | 45.6 | 1.23× | | [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.34 | 3.9% | 24 | 21.7 | 1.11× | | [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.33 | 3.9% | 24 | 21.7 | 1.11× | | [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.30 | 3.8% | 22 | 21.7 | 1.01× | | [P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.29 | 3.8% | 20 | 21.7 | 0.92× | | [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.06 | 3.1% | 22 | 21.7 | 1.01× | | [SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.59 | 1.7% | 20 | 21.7 | 0.92× | | [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.56 | 1.6% | 19 | 21.7 | 0.88× | | [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.53 | 1.6% | 17 | 21.7 | 0.78× | | [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.45 | 1.3% | 23 | 21.7 | 1.06× | | [P250 \| Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.40 | 1.2% | 23 | 21.7 | 1.06× | | [Nova \| Exo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.39 | 1.1% | 25 | 21.7 | 1.15× | | [PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.38 | 1.1% | 15 | 21.7 | 0.69× | | [SG 553 \| Aerial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.36 | 1.1% | 19 | 21.7 | 0.88× | | [P250 \| Iron Clad (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.35 | 1.0% | 22 | 21.7 | 1.01× | | [Nova \| Exo (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.33 | 1.0% | 22 | 21.7 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/gamma/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=gamma) [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-minimal-wear) [Сладкий Бубалех\<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%91%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%85%3C3) $1.49 $0.53 0.36x 2026-11-11 07:32 UTC [P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) [хуй врагам Кубани](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%85%D1%83%D0%B9%20%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8) $1.49 $1.29 0.87x 2026-11-10 21:53 UTC [Nova | Exo (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-minimal-wear) [Spaceman](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Spaceman) $1.49 $0.33 0.22x 2026-11-10 21:53 UTC [AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) [SKAТ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SKA%D0%A2) $1.49 $1.30 0.87x 2026-11-10 20:06 UTC [P250 | Iron Clad (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-field-tested) [Максим Тельнов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%A2%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1.49 $0.35 0.23x 2026-11-10 18:55 UTC [P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) [Максим Тельнов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%A2%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1.49 $1.29 0.87x 2026-11-10 18:54 UTC [Nova | Exo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-factory-new) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $1.49 $0.39 0.26x 2026-11-10 18:28 UTC [AUG | Aristocrat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-factory-new) [секс и виски](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%20%D0%B8%20%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8) $1.49 $3.80 2.55x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) [uu.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/uu.) $1.49 $0.56 0.38x 2026-11-10 14:40 UTC [AUG | Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) [BeαR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Be%CE%B1R) $1.49 $1.83 1.23x 2026-11-10 09:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.49 | 92.56% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.49 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 8.1% covert 0.0% red 0.0% classified 0.3% Mil Spec Grade 0.6% restricted 38.6% #4b69ff 1.4% #8847ff 9.8% blue 8.9% mil spec 12.1% milspec 16.1% Rare 4.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.56 on average: an expected loss of $7.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt