---
title: "Gamma 2 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Gamma 2 ($1.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.22% from 36 items with odds, observed 89.02% over 381 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Gamma 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma2)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Gamma 2

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma2?window=all)

Price · $1.99

Advertised RTP · 95.22% · EV $1.89 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.02% · 381 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 8 openings · below min

7 days · 381 openings · below min

30 days · 381 openings · below min

since tracking started · 381 openings · below min

-0.5% 63.3% 127.0%

**Small sample.** 381 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma2?window=24h) | 8 | 47.99% ±78.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma2?window=7d) | 381 | 89.02% ±7.73 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma2) | 381 | 89.02% ±7.73 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gamma2?window=all) | 381 | 89.02% ±7.73 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 381 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $325 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $208 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $115 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $110 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $63.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 28,571 | $50.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 7,519 | $32.35 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 2,793 | $24.96 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 2,165 | $22.40 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $13.48 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 320 | $12.74 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) | 1 in 267 | $12.49 | 2.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 277 | $12.19 | 2.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $11.94 | 2.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.31× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $7.26 | 11.2% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $6.29 | 5.6% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $3.31 | 12.5% | 36 | 27.2 | 1.32× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $3.05 | 13.4% | 39 | 31.7 | 1.23× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Imprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-imprint-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.91 | 4.4% | 18 | 16.5 | 1.09× |
| [MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-petroglyph-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.81 | 4.1% | 14 | 16.5 | 0.85× |
| [UMP-45 \| Briefing (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.70 | 3.9% | 11 | 16.5 | 0.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.60 | 3.7% | 19 | 16.5 | 1.15× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.47 | 3.4% | 15 | 16.5 | 0.91× |
| [Negev \| Dazzle (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dazzle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.44 | 3.3% | 15 | 16.5 | 0.91× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.32 | 3.0% | 16 | 16.5 | 0.97× |
| [MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-petroglyph-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.31 | 3.0% | 12 | 16.5 | 0.73× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.30 | 3.0% | 26 | 16.5 | 1.57× |
| [MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-petroglyph-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.29 | 3.0% | 13 | 16.5 | 0.79× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.08 | 2.5% | 15 | 16.5 | 0.91× |
| [XM1014 \| Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.75 | 1.7% | 18 | 16.5 | 1.09× |
| [G3SG1 \| Ventilator (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.69 | 1.6% | 15 | 16.5 | 0.91× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Imprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-imprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.41 | 0.9% | 14 | 16.5 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.40 | 0.9% | 19 | 16.5 | 1.15× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.35 | 0.8% | 16 | 16.5 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.35 | 0.8% | 17 | 16.5 | 1.03× |
| [G3SG1 \| Ventilator (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.33 | 0.8% | 15 | 16.5 | 0.91× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/gamma2/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=gamma2)

[P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) [Дима Чекушка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%A7%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $1.99 $0.35 0.18x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

[P90 | Grim (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-factory-new) [Иван Веселухин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%98%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%20%D0%92%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%83%D1%85%D0%B8%D0%BD) $1.99 $1.08 0.54x 2026-11-11 08:22 UTC

[G3SG1 | Ventilator (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-factory-new) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $1.99 $0.69 0.35x 2026-11-10 18:27 UTC

[MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-petroglyph-minimal-wear) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $1.99 $1.31 0.66x 2026-11-10 18:27 UTC

[XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-factory-new) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $1.99 $0.75 0.38x 2026-11-10 18:27 UTC

[G3SG1 | Ventilator (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-factory-new) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $1.99 $0.69 0.35x 2026-11-10 18:27 UTC

[SG 553 | Triarch (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-field-tested) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $1.99 $1.30 0.65x 2026-11-10 18:27 UTC

[SG 553 | Triarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-minimal-wear) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $1.99 $1.47 0.74x 2026-11-10 18:26 UTC

[Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $1.60 0.80x 2026-11-10 11:14 UTC

[MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-petroglyph-factory-new) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $1.81 0.91x 2026-11-10 11:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.99 | 95.22% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.99 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% classified 0.7% pink 0.4% #d32ee6 0.3% Legendary 0.4% #4b69ff 15.9% restricted 21.5% violet 13.0% Rare 13.0% #8847ff 8.7% Mythical 4.3% mil spec 8.7% Mil Spec 4.3% milspec 8.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.22 on average: an expected loss of $4.78 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt