---
title: "Garou case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Garou ($23.55) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.98% from 49 items with odds, observed 96.06% over 5 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/garou
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Garou](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/garou)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Garou

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/garou?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/garou?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/garou) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/garou?window=all)

Price · $23.55

Advertised RTP · 93.98% · EV $22.13 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.06% · 5 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 5 openings · below min

30 days · 5 openings · below min

since tracking started · 5 openings · below min

-0.5% 111.8% 224.0%

**Small sample.** 5 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/garou?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/garou?window=7d) | 5 | 96.06% ±127.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/garou) | 5 | 96.06% ±127.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/garou?window=all) | 5 | 96.06% ±127.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $11.3K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,944 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $6,856 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $1,742 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $1,732 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $1,513 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $1,401 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,201 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $1,137 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45,455 | $1,009 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41,667 | $953 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $846 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet) | 1 in 21,739 | $759 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,524 | $531 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 7,353 | $459 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,566 | $375 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $372 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,625 | $317 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,157 | $220 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Minimal Wear) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 793 | $184 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 514 | $182 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 656 | $178 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 406 | $155 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 255 | $128 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 178 | $105 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 117 | $86.93 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $77.77 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $66.17 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $61.04 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $52.97 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $49.37 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $45.83 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $43.21 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $38.13 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $37.40 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $34.41 | 6.7% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $34.30 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $19.11 | 5.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $16.04 | 4.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $15.43 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $14.55 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $9.66 | 2.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $9.22 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $5.26 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.13 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $4.16 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $4.04 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.25 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.02 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/garou/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=garou)

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $23.55 $34.41 1.46x 2026-11-09 01:17 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) [турбо воин csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B1%D0%BE%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B8%D0%BD%20csgorun) $23.55 $9.66 0.41x 2026-11-08 18:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [турбо воин csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B1%D0%BE%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B8%D0%BD%20csgorun) $23.55 $34.41 1.46x 2026-11-08 18:43 UTC

[P250 | Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) [турбо воин csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B1%D0%BE%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B8%D0%BD%20csgorun) $23.55 $16.04 0.68x 2026-11-08 18:43 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) [MilfHunter GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MilfHunter%20GGDROP) $24.09 $19.11 0.79x 2026-11-05 08:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $23.55 | 93.98% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $24.09 | 91.88% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $24.09 | 92.73% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 12.3% contraband 0.0% legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.3% restricted 11.6% epic 0.0% Legendary 5.8% Extraordinary 0.1% Ancient 6.7% classified 16.3% red 3.3% mil spec 3.0% #d32ee6 6.5% violet 6.5% consumer 6.2% Mythical 10.6% pink 5.6% uncommon 5.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.98 on average: an expected loss of $6.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt