---
title: "Genesis case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Genesis ($0.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.05% from 36 items with odds, observed 90.77% over 443 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genesis
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Genesis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genesis)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Genesis

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genesis?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genesis?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genesis) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genesis?window=all)

Price · $0.99

Advertised RTP · 95.05% · EV $0.94 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.77% · 443 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96.53% ±17.70 116 openings

7 days · 90.77% ±9.05 443 openings

30 days · 90.77% ±9.05 443 openings

since tracking started · 90.77% ±9.05 443 openings

78.0% 96.5% 115.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genesis?window=24h) | 116 | 96.53% ±17.7 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genesis?window=7d) | 443 | 90.77% ±9.05 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genesis) | 443 | 90.77% ±9.05 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genesis?window=all) | 443 | 90.77% ±9.05 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 598 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $162 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $98.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $71.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $44.82 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 125,000 | $38.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-factory-new) | 1 in 23,256 | $21.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,410 | $13.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,546 | $11.62 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,028 | $10.28 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 639 | $7.13 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 252 | $5.46 | 2.3% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 168 | $4.46 | 2.8% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.69× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $3.96 | 3.2% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.31× |
| [Nova \| Ocular (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $3.59 | 4.0% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.28× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-factory-new) | 1 in 106 | $3.43 | 3.4% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.89× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $2.92 | 4.1% | 4 | 7.9 | 0.51× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $2.04 | 6.3% | 12 | 17.4 | 0.69× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.36 | 12.2% | 47 | 50.6 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.31 | 10.8% | 38 | 46.6 | 0.82× |
| [Nova \| Ocular (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.31 | 10.5% | 47 | 45.1 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.30 | 11.7% | 50 | 50.6 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Red Wing (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.77 | 3.2% | 27 | 23.7 | 1.14× |
| [AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.74 | 3.1% | 23 | 23.7 | 0.97× |
| [MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.69 | 2.9% | 24 | 23.7 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.62 | 2.6% | 23 | 23.7 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.59 | 2.5% | 29 | 23.7 | 1.22× |
| [Nova \| Ocular (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.59 | 2.5% | 25 | 23.7 | 1.05× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.59 | 2.5% | 25 | 23.7 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Red Wing (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.23 | 1.0% | 21 | 23.7 | 0.89× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Caged (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.22 | 0.9% | 27 | 23.7 | 1.14× |
| [AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.21 | 0.9% | 30 | 23.7 | 1.26× |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.21 | 0.9% | 29 | 23.7 | 1.22× |
| [MP9 \| Broken Record (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-broken-record-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.20 | 0.8% | 25 | 23.7 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Bullfrog (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.20 | 0.8% | 15 | 23.7 | 0.63× |
| [MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.20 | 0.8% | 23 | 23.7 | 0.97× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Caged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.12 | 0.5% | 27 | 23.7 | 1.14× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/genesis/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=genesis)

[MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude-minimal-wear) [Леонель Месик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%20%D0%9C%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BA) $0.99 $0.20 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-field-tested) [Леонель Месик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%20%D0%9C%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BA) $0.99 $0.62 0.63x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) [Леонель Месик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%20%D0%9C%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BA) $0.99 $0.59 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-minimal-wear) [Леонель Месик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%20%D0%9C%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BA) $0.99 $1.31 1.32x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-minimal-wear) [Леонель Месик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%20%D0%9C%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BA) $0.99 $1.30 1.31x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-minimal-wear) [Леонель Месик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%20%D0%9C%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BA) $0.99 $1.31 1.32x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $0.99 $1.36 1.37x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-field-tested) [KARAT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KARAT) $0.99 $0.62 0.63x 2026-11-11 09:20 UTC

[UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-factory-new) [Сладкий Бубалех\<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%91%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%85%3C3) $0.99 $2.92 2.95x 2026-11-11 07:32 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-minimal-wear) [8228631777](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/8228631777) $0.99 $1.30 1.31x 2026-11-11 06:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.99 | 95.05% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.99 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% Ancient 0.0% red 0.0% rare 0.0% uncommon 0.0% Legendary 0.0% pink 0.6% violet 31.7% Mythical 21.7% #8847ff 2.4% blue 23.8% #4b69ff 4.0% milspec 4.0% Rare 11.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.05 on average: an expected loss of $4.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt