---
title: "Genos case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Genos ($4.13) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.93% from 49 items with odds, observed 77.41% over 29 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genos
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Genos](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genos)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Genos

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genos?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genos?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genos) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genos?window=all)

Price · $4.13

Advertised RTP · 93.93% · EV $3.88 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.41% · 29 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 21 openings · below min

30 days · 29 openings · below min

since tracking started · 29 openings · below min

-0.5% 113.8% 228.0%

**Small sample.** 29 openings and 6.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genos?window=24h) | 3 | 74.82% ±152.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genos?window=7d) | 21 | 82.57% ±57.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genos) | 29 | 77.41% ±49.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/genos?window=all) | 29 | 77.41% ±49.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,888 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,067 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,048 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $937 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $849 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $782 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $668 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500,000 | $548 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $461 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $414 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 62,500 | $171 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30,303 | $133 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27,027 | $123 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Field-Tested) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-field-tested) | 1 in 19,608 | $109 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 12,048 | $93.74 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,905 | $89.25 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-factory-new) | 1 in 6,944 | $70.53 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Well-Worn) gloves · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-well-worn) | 1 in 1,942 | $50.81 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 2,198 | $48.44 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,672 | $45.86 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,040 | $37.31 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 759 | $28.66 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-field-tested) | 1 in 350 | $24.48 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 183 | $19.11 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 173 | $17.62 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $13.48 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-copper-coated-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $11.27 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94 | $11.07 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $10.13 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $9.94 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $8.04 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-metal-flowers-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $7.19 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $5.85 | 4.6% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $4.78 | 5.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.50× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $4.70 | 4.9% | 5 | 1.2 | 4.24× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $4.49 | 4.0% | 4 | 1.0 | 3.95× |
| [Sticker \| Evil Geniuses (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-evil-geniuses-holo-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 17 | $4.05 | 6.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.97 | 6.1% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.74× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $3.37 | 5.1% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.14 | 4.7% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.07 | 4.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.17× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.77 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1.35 | 1.9% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.10 | 1.5% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.94× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-heavy-metal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.81 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.76 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.34× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.72 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.71 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.36× |
| [SSG 08 \| Zeno (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/genos/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=genos)

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-heavy-metal-minimal-wear) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $4.13 $0.81 0.20x 2026-11-11 09:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $4.13 $3.97 0.96x 2026-11-11 09:06 UTC

[MAG-7 | Core Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-minimal-wear) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $4.13 $4.49 1.09x 2026-11-11 09:06 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [runias](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/runias) $4.13 $4.70 1.14x 2026-11-10 10:14 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) [runias](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/runias) $4.13 $4.78 1.16x 2026-11-10 10:14 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [runias](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/runias) $4.13 $4.70 1.14x 2026-11-10 10:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) [runias](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/runias) $4.13 $5.85 1.42x 2026-11-10 10:14 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) [runias](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/runias) $4.13 $0.71 0.17x 2026-11-10 10:14 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) [karch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karch) $4.13 $1.10 0.27x 2026-11-09 15:26 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) [karch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karch) $4.13 $1.35 0.33x 2026-11-09 15:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.13 | 93.93% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.13 | 96.36% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% covert knife 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 5.4% sunny 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% rare 0.0% Extraordinary 0.0% red 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.1% mil spec 20.5% restricted 11.2% uncommon 0.3% Mil Spec Grade 7.5% Mythical 12.1% industrial 1.6% other 2.5% #8847ff 17.0% blue 5.9% violet 11.2% milspec 4.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.93 on average: an expected loss of $6.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt