---
title: "Ghosthouse case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ghosthouse ($75.00) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.28% from 42 items with odds, observed 84.97% over 118 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghosthouse
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Ghosthouse](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghosthouse)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Ghosthouse

A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghosthouse?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghosthouse?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghosthouse) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghosthouse?window=all)

Price · $75.00

Advertised RTP · 89.28% · EV $66.96 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.97% · 118 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 79 openings · below min

30 days · 84.97% ±16.23 118 openings

since tracking started · 84.97% ±16.23 118 openings

67.5% 88.0% 108.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghosthouse?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghosthouse?window=7d) | 79 | 87.92% ±19.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghosthouse) | 118 | 84.97% ±16.2 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghosthouse?window=all) | 118 | 84.97% ±16.2 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 118 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $8,522 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $3,459 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,658 | $1,635 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $1,590 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,016 | $1,079 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 942 | $614 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 660 | $532 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 605 | $531 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 234 | $357 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $292 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $237 | 3.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $186 | 3.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.36× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $174 | 3.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $163 | 4.0% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $133 | 4.0% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $120 | 4.5% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $109 | 4.7% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $91.52 | 5.5% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.06× |
| [P2000 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $88.80 | 3.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $85.41 | 5.5% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-frost-borre-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $75.28 | 5.5% | 10 | 5.8 | 1.72× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $70.14 | 5.9% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.75× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $69.60 | 5.9% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $59.50 | 4.5% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.33× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $58.28 | 4.6% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $55.68 | 3.8% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $47.77 | 3.1% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $45.83 | 3.0% | 9 | 5.1 | 1.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $43.69 | 2.6% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× |
| [P90 \| Baroque Red (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $35.28 | 1.9% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $33.48 | 1.2% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $29.27 | 1.5% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $28.08 | 1.5% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.45× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $23.40 | 1.1% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.82× |
| [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $18.09 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $16.25 | 0.7% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.16× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $11.14 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $11.02 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $7.07 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.54× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $6.75 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $6.53 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $4.69 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.46× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/ghosthouse/show`, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=ghosthouse)

[★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-minimal-wear) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $75.00 $292 3.89x 2026-11-08 20:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $75.00 $6.53 0.09x 2026-11-08 17:10 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $75.00 $58.28 0.78x 2026-11-08 09:10 UTC

[AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $75.00 $45.83 0.61x 2026-11-08 09:10 UTC

[P90 | Baroque Red (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-factory-new) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $75.00 $35.28 0.47x 2026-11-08 09:10 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) [extazi68](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/extazi68) $75.00 $58.28 0.78x 2026-11-08 07:01 UTC

[XM1014 | Frost Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-frost-borre-field-tested) [extazi68](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/extazi68) $75.00 $75.28 1.00x 2026-11-08 07:01 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) [extazi68](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/extazi68) $75.00 $59.50 0.79x 2026-11-07 08:31 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $75.00 $6.53 0.09x 2026-11-06 12:36 UTC

[XM1014 | Frost Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-frost-borre-field-tested) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $75.00 $75.28 1.00x 2026-11-06 12:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $75.00 | 89.28% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $75.00 | 91.74% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 19.6% epic 0.2% gold 4.0% extraordinary 2.8% restricted 8.6% mil spec 21.5% classified 13.1% sunny 5.1% industrial 7.3% Ancient 4.3% pink 3.4% red 3.5% Mythical 3.9% violet 1.5% Classified 1.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.28 on average: an expected loss of $10.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt