---
title: "Ghostship case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ghostship ($50.00) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.35% from 42 items with odds, observed 103.47% over 187 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghostship
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Ghostship](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghostship)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Ghostship

A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghostship?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghostship?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghostship) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghostship?window=all)

Price · $50.00

Advertised RTP · 92.35% · EV $46.17 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 103.47% · 187 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 99.93% ±15.64 137 openings

30 days · 103.47% ±13.44 187 openings

since tracking started · 103.47% ±13.44 187 openings

83.5% 100.5% 117.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghostship?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghostship?window=7d) | 137 | 99.93% ±15.6 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghostship) | 187 | 103.47% ±13.4 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ghostship?window=all) | 187 | 103.47% ±13.4 | +1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 187 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 76,923 | $2,218 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-wave-chaser-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $2,068 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $1,260 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13,333 | $1,152 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 2,597 | $645 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 648 | $379 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 923 | $366 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) | 1 in 509 | $348 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 449 | $314 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 182 | $196 | 2.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $183 | 2.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.58× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 121 | $178 | 3.2% | 6 | 1.5 | 3.90× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $124 | 3.3% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $103 | 3.9% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $97.93 | 4.0% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.13× |
| [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $97.24 | 3.1% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $91.52 | 4.3% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $78.74 | 4.9% | 9 | 5.4 | 1.67× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $69.79 | 5.2% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $66.21 | 5.1% | 10 | 6.7 | 1.50× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $63.28 | 5.6% | 4 | 7.6 | 0.53× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $54.97 | 6.4% | 5 | 10.1 | 0.50× |
| [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $43.49 | 5.3% | 10 | 10.4 | 0.96× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $40.45 | 4.8% | 17 | 10.3 | 1.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $40.41 | 4.6% | 13 | 9.8 | 1.33× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $37.62 | 4.2% | 12 | 9.6 | 1.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $33.48 | 2.5% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.26× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $32.21 | 3.0% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $31.86 | 3.3% | 7 | 8.8 | 0.79× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $28.46 | 2.9% | 7 | 8.8 | 0.79× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $26.67 | 2.4% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× |
| [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $21.07 | 1.7% | 2 | 6.9 | 0.29× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $20.49 | 1.6% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.73× |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $15.74 | 1.0% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.87× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $10.51 | 0.6% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.10× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $9.67 | 0.5% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $9.66 | 0.6% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $7.53 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $6.64 | 0.3% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $4.53 | 0.2% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $3.67 | 0.1% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.44× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $3.54 | 0.1% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/ghostship/show`, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=ghostship)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $50.00 $40.45 0.81x 2026-11-08 20:58 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $50.00 $40.45 0.81x 2026-11-08 19:21 UTC

[SG 553 | Wave Spray (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $50.00 $43.49 0.87x 2026-11-08 19:21 UTC

[SG 553 | Wave Spray (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $50.00 $43.49 0.87x 2026-11-08 19:21 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [круто90210](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D1%82%D0%BE90210) $50.00 $63.28 1.27x 2026-11-08 11:49 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) [Максим Петров](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%9F%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $50.00 $32.21 0.64x 2026-11-08 09:17 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) [extazi68](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/extazi68) $50.00 $31.86 0.64x 2026-11-08 07:02 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) [extazi68](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/extazi68) $50.00 $178 3.56x 2026-11-08 06:42 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $50.00 $78.74 1.57x 2026-11-07 20:44 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [extazi68](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/extazi68) $50.00 $124 2.47x 2026-11-07 08:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $50.00 | 92.35% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $50.00 | 94.06% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 27.2% legendary 0.0% extraordinary 3.4% classified 5.7% restricted 13.4% red 0.6% mil spec 22.1% covert knife 2.9% #4b69ff 5.6% Ancient 4.7% Legendary 3.6% industrial 3.1% Restricted 2.8% #87c7ff 1.8% pink 1.6% Common 1.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.35 on average: an expected loss of $7.65 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt