---
title: "Giftblast case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Giftblast ($5.98) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.89% from 42 items with odds, observed 96.80% over 204 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/giftblast
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Giftblast](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/giftblast)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Giftblast

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/giftblast?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/giftblast?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/giftblast) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/giftblast?window=all)

Price · $5.98

Advertised RTP · 93.89% · EV $5.61 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.80% · 204 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 19 openings · below min

7 days · 75 openings · below min

30 days · 96.80% ±29.94 204 openings

since tracking started · 96.80% ±29.94 204 openings

9.5% 109.8% 210.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/giftblast?window=24h) | 19 | 109.93% ±99.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/giftblast?window=7d) | 75 | 98.63% ±49.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/giftblast) | 204 | 96.80% ±29.9 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/giftblast?window=all) | 204 | 96.80% ±29.9 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 204 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,593 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,780 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,399 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,618 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,122 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,944 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,765 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,078 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $816 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 200,000 | $794 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $614 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $409 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 62,500 | $397 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 17,544 | $172 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 3,344 | $93.74 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 1,600 | $67.31 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 1,264 | $63.53 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) | 1 in 672 | $52.79 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 513 | $45.83 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 252 | $32.73 | 2.3% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 124 | $25.10 | 3.6% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.43× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $19.91 | 3.8% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $17.91 | 4.6% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $16.25 | 5.0% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.42× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $13.17 | 4.7% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $11.79 | 5.7% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $10.12 | 6.2% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.86× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $9.12 | 5.8% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $8.14 | 8.5% | 12 | 11.9 | 1.01× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $6.99 | 7.2% | 22 | 11.7 | 1.88× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $5.08 | 6.6% | 20 | 15.0 | 1.34× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $4.12 | 5.0% | 15 | 13.8 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $4.01 | 4.9% | 9 | 14.0 | 0.64× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $3.46 | 4.2% | 9 | 13.8 | 0.65× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $3.06 | 3.3% | 13 | 12.5 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $2.94 | 3.4% | 7 | 13.2 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $2.91 | 3.3% | 16 | 12.8 | 1.25× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $2.01 | 2.1% | 13 | 11.9 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.69 | 1.6% | 8 | 10.9 | 0.73× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.23 | 1.0% | 11 | 9.6 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.90 | 0.7% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.60 | 0.4% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.76× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/giftblast/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=giftblast)

[Zeus x27 | Olympus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-battle-scarred) [ОЙБОЙ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D0%99%D0%91%D0%9E%D0%99) $5.98 $3.06 0.51x 2026-11-11 10:38 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) [bumdlebor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bumdlebor) $5.98 $2.94 0.49x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-field-tested) [bumdlebor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bumdlebor) $5.98 $2.01 0.34x 2026-11-10 15:12 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Olympus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-battle-scarred) [bumdlebor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bumdlebor) $5.98 $3.06 0.51x 2026-11-10 15:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-field-tested) [bumdlebor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bumdlebor) $5.98 $2.01 0.34x 2026-11-10 15:11 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Olympus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-battle-scarred) [bumdlebor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bumdlebor) $5.98 $3.06 0.51x 2026-11-10 15:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) [bumdlebor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bumdlebor) $5.98 $2.91 0.49x 2026-11-10 15:11 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) [bumdlebor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bumdlebor) $5.98 $11.79 1.97x 2026-11-10 15:10 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-well-worn) [bumdlebor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bumdlebor) $5.98 $9.12 1.53x 2026-11-10 15:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) [bumdlebor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bumdlebor) $5.98 $2.91 0.49x 2026-11-10 15:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.98 | 93.89% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $6.14 | 91.44% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.14 | 92.63% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% legendary 0.0% sunny 0.0% epic 0.0% gold 0.1% rare 1.1% restricted 0.4% red 1.0% Ancient 0.2% classified 13.5% pink 13.7% Legendary 3.4% #8847ff 20.6% #d32ee6 5.7% Restricted 6.9% Mythical 15.3% #d32ce6 6.5% violet 6.3% Rare 5.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.89 on average: an expected loss of $6.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt