---
title: "Gold c case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Gold c ($12.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 34 items with odds, observed 108.89% over 182 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold-c
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Gold c](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold-c)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Gold c

A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold-c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold-c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold-c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold-c?window=all)

Price · $12.99

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $12.21 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 108.89% · 182 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 25 openings · below min

7 days · 108.89% ±21.27 182 openings

30 days · 108.89% ±21.27 182 openings

since tracking started · 108.89% ±21.27 182 openings

32.0% 90.0% 148.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold-c?window=24h) | 25 | 89.98% ±57.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold-c?window=7d) | 182 | 108.89% ±21.3 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold-c) | 182 | 108.89% ±21.3 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold-c?window=all) | 182 | 108.89% ±21.3 | +1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 201 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $1,888 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90,909 | $1,590 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 66,667 | $1,253 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 4,673 | $208 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 3,546 | $187 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,710 | $186 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 3,195 | $183 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 2,294 | $159 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 872 | $120 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 812 | $120 | 1.2% | 4 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-factory-new) | 1 in 700 | $99.81 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 354 | $91.52 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 327 | $89.56 | 2.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 318 | $87.20 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 303 | $85.02 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 160 | $62.30 | 3.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 132 | $58.28 | 3.6% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $43.02 | 4.0% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.76× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $32.21 | 5.5% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $31.86 | 5.5% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.41× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $29.39 | 4.8% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $28.08 | 5.9% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $26.66 | 9.3% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $23.20 | 5.4% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.53× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $14.38 | 9.2% | 19 | 15.6 | 1.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $7.95 | 5.3% | 15 | 16.4 | 0.91× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $7.80 | 5.2% | 12 | 16.4 | 0.73× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $6.54 | 4.4% | 17 | 16.4 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $4.69 | 3.1% | 14 | 16.4 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $4.68 | 3.1% | 20 | 16.4 | 1.22× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $4.11 | 2.7% | 15 | 16.4 | 0.91× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.53 | 1.7% | 13 | 16.4 | 0.79× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.32 | 1.6% | 22 | 16.4 | 1.34× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $2.29 | 1.3% | 13 | 13.5 | 0.96× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/gold_c/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=gold-c)

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $12.99 $2.53 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $12.99 $4.68 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $12.99 $14.38 1.11x 2026-11-11 15:47 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $12.99 $2.53 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $12.99 $29.39 2.26x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $12.99 $2.29 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $12.99 $14.38 1.11x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.99 $2.32 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.99 $7.80 0.60x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.99 $2.29 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $12.99 | 94.00% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.9% rare 4.4% classified 0.3% restricted 30.5% Ancient 2.1% red 2.6% Mythical 17.7% #8847ff 16.0% Legendary 8.2% violet 16.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt