--- title: "Gold case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Gold ($296.78) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.61% from 22 items with odds, observed 78.52% over 38 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Gold](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Gold A case on CSGORUN (vipcases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold?window=all) Price · $296.78 Advertised RTP · 88.61% · EV $262.97 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.52% · 38 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 38 openings · below min 30 days · 38 openings · below min since tracking started · 38 openings · below min -0.5% 83.5% 167.5% **Small sample.** 38 openings and 8.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold?window=24h) | 4 | 79.63% ±87.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold?window=7d) | 38 | 78.52% ±28.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold) | 38 | 78.52% ±28.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gold?window=all) | 38 | 78.52% ±28.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,587 | $5,745 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 428 | $2,208 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 1 in 307 | $1,649 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $1,172 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $900 | 5.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $894 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $826 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $637 | 6.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $475 | 7.7% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.48× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $475 | 7.7% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.48× | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 25 | $474 | 7.2% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $304 | 10.8% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.69× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $211 | 7.4% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.14× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $186 | 6.0% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $185 | 5.9% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $154 | 4.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $112 | 2.9% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $112 | 2.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $86.85 | 2.0% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $72.70 | 1.6% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.87× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $55.87 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $46.12 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/gold/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $297 $900 3.03x 2026-11-07 19:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=gold) [★ Skeleton Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [Fear is Near](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fear%20is%20Near) $297 $211 0.71x 2026-11-10 21:12 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $297 $72.70 0.24x 2026-11-10 17:12 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $297 $186 0.63x 2026-11-10 17:11 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $297 $475 1.60x 2026-11-10 17:11 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $297 $112 0.38x 2026-11-09 18:43 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) [RUD1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/RUD1) $297 $154 0.52x 2026-11-09 00:57 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $297 $46.12 0.16x 2026-11-08 21:01 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $297 $304 1.02x 2026-11-08 13:22 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [raccoon\_legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/raccoon_legend) $297 $475 1.60x 2026-11-07 20:49 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [raccoon\_legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/raccoon_legend) $297 $304 1.02x 2026-11-07 20:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $297 | 88.61% | 22 | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $297 | 90.60% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% covert 37.1% legendary 9.7% #EB4B4B 0.9% remarkable 4.0% rare 9.3% gold 8.3% Covert 6.9% covert knife 6.9% industrial 6.2% classified 10.7% best hit $900 (3.03x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.61 on average: an expected loss of $11.39 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt