---
title: "Gradient case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Gradient ($21.82) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.96% from 25 items with odds, observed 89.96% over 144 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradient
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Gradient](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradient)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Gradient

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradient?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradient?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradient) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradient?window=all)

Price · $21.82

Advertised RTP · 93.96% · EV $20.50 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.96% · 144 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 91.55% ±20.17 126 openings

30 days · 89.96% ±18.81 144 openings

since tracking started · 89.96% ±18.81 144 openings

-0.5% 94.5% 189.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradient?window=24h) | 2 | 26.05% ±162.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradient?window=7d) | 126 | 91.55% ±20.2 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradient) | 144 | 89.96% ±18.8 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradient?window=all) | 144 | 89.96% ±18.8 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 144 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 34,483 | $1,732 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20,408 | $1,331 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,378 | $416 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,264 | $268 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 915 | $232 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 438 | $190 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 156 | $119 | 3.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $58.42 | 6.2% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $53.11 | 6.7% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $46.66 | 8.0% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $45.68 | 8.1% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.57× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $37.31 | 8.6% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $33.93 | 10.0% | 10 | 8.7 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $20.13 | 8.0% | 12 | 11.7 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $19.38 | 9.0% | 14 | 13.8 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $15.79 | 7.1% | 18 | 13.3 | 1.36× |
| [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $12.16 | 4.8% | 13 | 11.7 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $11.37 | 4.1% | 14 | 10.6 | 1.32× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $10.24 | 3.4% | 11 | 9.8 | 1.13× |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $7.81 | 2.3% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.05× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $6.39 | 1.6% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.18× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.98 | 1.2% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.75 | 0.7% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $2.79 | 0.5% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $2.60 | 0.4% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.62× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/gradient/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=gradient)

[MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $21.82 $4.98 0.23x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $21.82 $6.39 0.29x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $21.82 $3.75 0.17x 2026-11-09 20:09 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $21.82 $19.38 0.89x 2026-11-08 20:02 UTC

[P90 | Sunset Lily (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $21.82 $12.16 0.56x 2026-11-08 20:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $21.82 $20.13 0.92x 2026-11-08 14:32 UTC

[Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-minimal-wear) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $21.82 $7.81 0.36x 2026-11-08 11:32 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) [✅ RUN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9C%85%20RUN) $21.82 $119 5.47x 2026-11-08 07:05 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) [✅ RUN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9C%85%20RUN) $21.82 $15.79 0.72x 2026-11-08 07:05 UTC

[AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) [✅ RUN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9C%85%20RUN) $21.82 $33.93 1.55x 2026-11-08 07:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $21.82 | 93.96% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $22.78 | 90.00% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.78 | 90.88% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% Covert 2.6% sunny 1.0% epic 0.1% #ffd700 2.2% covert 7.1% mil spec 19.6% Ancient 6.0% milspec 8.1% Mil Spec Grade 9.2% industrial 8.2% pink 7.4% restricted 11.8% blue 5.9% Legendary 4.0% classified 3.4% #4b69ff 3.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.96 on average: an expected loss of $6.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt