---
title: "Gradientcase case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Gradientcase ($24.37) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.97% from 45 items with odds, observed 93.64% over 209 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradientcase
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Gradientcase](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradientcase)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Gradientcase

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradientcase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradientcase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradientcase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradientcase?window=all)

Price · $24.37

Advertised RTP · 93.97% · EV $22.90 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.64% · 209 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 94.04% ±29.21 208 openings

30 days · 93.64% ±29.14 209 openings

since tracking started · 93.64% ±29.14 209 openings

64.0% 94.0% 124.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradientcase?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradientcase?window=7d) | 208 | 94.04% ±29.2 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradientcase) | 209 | 93.64% ±29.1 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gradientcase?window=all) | 209 | 93.64% ±29.1 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 209 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90,909 | $2,505 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $2,208 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $2,146 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $1,695 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40,000 | $1,394 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 41,667 | $1,378 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37,037 | $1,201 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 26,316 | $1,079 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13,889 | $949 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19,608 | $904 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,650 | $663 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 6,849 | $642 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,579 | $599 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,584 | $549 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,322 | $509 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,415 | $442 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,656 | $421 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,096 | $400 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,739 | $390 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,412 | $358 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,263 | $340 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,316 | $334 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,276 | $331 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 919 | $307 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 975 | $299 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 927 | $297 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 725 | $291 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 685 | $268 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 407 | $247 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 440 | $237 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 316 | $204 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 278 | $198 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 265 | $187 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 230 | $172 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 253 | $172 | 3.0% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 178 | $165 | 4.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.70× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 98 | $123 | 5.5% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.41× |
| [Souvenir MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $31.58 | 11.0% | 17 | 16.7 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) | 14.1% | $23.12 | 14.3% | 38 | 29.6 | 1.29× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 13.8% | $19.80 | 11.9% | 37 | 28.8 | 1.28× |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 12.8% | $10.09 | 5.6% | 25 | 26.7 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $6.89 | 3.8% | 23 | 26.2 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 11.7% | $3.59 | 1.8% | 17 | 24.4 | 0.70× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-well-worn) | 12.0% | $2.59 | 1.4% | 25 | 25.1 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.63 | 0.3% | 15 | 20.7 | 0.72× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/gradientcase/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=gradientcase)

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $24.37 $297 12.19x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $24.37 $10.09 0.41x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $24.37 $10.09 0.41x 2026-11-09 16:55 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $24.37 $10.09 0.41x 2026-11-09 16:55 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $24.37 $23.12 0.95x 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $24.37 $23.12 0.95x 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $24.37 $10.09 0.41x 2026-11-09 16:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $24.37 $3.59 0.15x 2026-11-09 16:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $24.37 $3.59 0.15x 2026-11-09 16:53 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $24.37 $10.09 0.41x 2026-11-09 16:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $24.37 | 93.97% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $25.76 | 88.90% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $25.76 | 91.04% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.6% covert 2.1% legendary 0.1% restricted 20.5% Covert 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% gold 0.2% rare 1.7% classified 0.4% mil spec 27.9% Rare 12.8% #4b69ff 11.7% milspec 12.0% #4B69FF 9.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.97 on average: an expected loss of $6.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt