---
title: "Graffiti case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Graffiti ($0.25) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 99.11% from 38 items with odds, observed 99.45% over 2,721 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graffiti
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graffiti)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Graffiti

A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graffiti?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graffiti?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graffiti) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graffiti?window=all)

Price · $0.25

Advertised RTP · 99.11% · EV $0.25 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.45% · 2,721 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 55.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.32% ±20.11 191 openings

7 days · 99.45% ±5.31 2,721 openings

30 days · 99.45% ±5.31 2,721 openings

since tracking started · 99.45% ±5.31 2,721 openings

61.5% 83.5% 105.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graffiti?window=24h) | 191 | 82.32% ±20.1 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graffiti?window=7d) | 2,721 | 99.45% ±5.31 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graffiti) | 2,721 | 99.45% ±5.31 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graffiti?window=all) | 2,721 | 99.45% ±5.31 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,515 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Denied (Cash Green) graffiti · Graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-denied-cash-green) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $88.33 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Recoil Galil AR (Desert Amber) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-galil-ar-desert-amber) | 1 in 500,000 | $27.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Tyloo \| London 2018 graffiti · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-tyloo-london-2018) | 1 in 142,857 | $13.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Cheongsam graffiti · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-cheongsam) | 1 in 100,000 | $11.88 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Recoil SG 553 (Monster Purple) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-sg-553-monster-purple) | 1 in 47,619 | $9.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Team Liquid \| Atlanta 2017 graffiti · Graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-team-liquid-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 20,000 | $6.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Choke (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-choke-war-pig-pink) | 1 in 8,333 | $4.81 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| G2 Esports \| Krakow 2017 graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-g2-esports-krakow-2017) | 1 in 3,521 | $3.42 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Broken Heart (Princess Pink) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-princess-pink) | 1 in 706 | $3.30 | 1.9% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| OMG (War Pig Pink) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-omg-war-pig-pink) | 1 in 118 | $2.73 | 9.3% | 32 | 29.7 | 1.08× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Clutch King graffiti · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-clutch-king) | 1 in 1,580 | $2.69 | 0.7% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.80× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| BIG \| Boston 2018 graffiti · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-big-boston-2018) | 1 in 366 | $1.66 | 1.8% | 15 | 9.6 | 1.56× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| NT (Princess Pink) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-nt-princess-pink) | 1 in 179 | $1.22 | 2.8% | 22 | 19.7 | 1.12× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Ivette graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ivette) | 1 in 76 | $0.74 | 3.9% | 49 | 46.1 | 1.06× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| God of Fortune graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-god-of-fortune) | 1 in 54 | $0.61 | 4.5% | 73 | 64.7 | 1.13× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Skull n' Crosshairs graffiti · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-skull-n-crosshairs) | 1 in 38 | $0.54 | 5.7% | 98 | 91.3 | 1.07× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Easy Peasy graffiti · Graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-easy-peasy) | 1 in 28 | $0.43 | 6.1% | 128 | 123.4 | 1.04× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Rice Bomb graffiti · Graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-rice-bomb) | 1 in 22 | $0.36 | 6.6% | 172 | 160.6 | 1.07× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Denied (Frog Green) graffiti · Graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-denied-frog-green) | 1 in 17 | $0.33 | 7.8% | 200 | 207.1 | 0.97× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Heart (Bazooka Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-bazooka-pink) | 1 in 14 | $0.31 | 8.7% | 244 | 245.8 | 0.99× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Little Bock (Frog Green) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-little-bock-frog-green) | 1 in 13 | $0.28 | 8.9% | 298 | 278.3 | 1.07× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| 1G (Monster Purple) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-1g-monster-purple) | 1 in 12 | $0.27 | 9.2% | 304 | 297.1 | 1.02× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Little EZ (Violent Violet) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-little-ez-violent-violet) | 1 in 29 | $0.22 | 3.1% | 112 | 120.8 | 0.93× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Uh Oh (Princess Pink) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-uh-oh-princess-pink) | 1 in 29 | $0.17 | 2.4% | 116 | 120.8 | 0.96× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Cocky (Shark White) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-cocky-shark-white) | 1 in 29 | $0.16 | 2.2% | 108 | 120.8 | 0.89× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-blood-red) | 1 in 29 | $0.15 | 2.1% | 100 | 120.8 | 0.83× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Piggles (Bazooka Pink) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-piggles-bazooka-pink) | 1 in 29 | $0.15 | 2.1% | 130 | 120.8 | 1.08× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Heart (Monster Purple) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-monster-purple) | 1 in 29 | $0.10 | 1.4% | 115 | 120.8 | 0.95× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| GGEZ (Shark White) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-shark-white) | 1 in 29 | $0.07 | 1.0% | 135 | 120.8 | 1.12× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| King Me (Shark White) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-king-me-shark-white) | 1 in 29 | $0.07 | 1.0% | 127 | 120.8 | 1.05× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Heart (Princess Pink) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-princess-pink) | 1 in 29 | $0.07 | 1.0% | 118 | 120.8 | 0.98× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Loser (Blood Red) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-loser-blood-red) | 1 in 29 | $0.06 | 0.8% | 125 | 120.8 | 1.03× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Take Flight (Shark White) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-shark-white) | 1 in 29 | $0.06 | 0.8% | 132 | 120.8 | 1.09× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Heart (Brick Red) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-brick-red) | 1 in 29 | $0.06 | 0.8% | 107 | 120.8 | 0.89× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| King Me (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-king-me-tracer-yellow) | 1 in 29 | $0.05 | 0.7% | 105 | 120.8 | 0.87× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Heart (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-war-pig-pink) | 1 in 29 | $0.05 | 0.7% | 121 | 120.8 | 1.00× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Heart (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-tracer-yellow) | 1 in 29 | $0.04 | 0.6% | 113 | 120.8 | 0.94× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Heart (Tiger Orange) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-tiger-orange) | 1 in 29 | $0.03 | 0.4% | 107 | 120.8 | 0.89× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/graffiti/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=graffiti)

[Sealed Graffiti | Uh Oh (Princess Pink) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-uh-oh-princess-pink) [arsenius2019](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/arsenius2019) $0.25 $0.17 0.68x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Heart (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-tracer-yellow) [izumrudnyi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/izumrudnyi) $0.25 $0.04 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | 1G (Monster Purple) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-1g-monster-purple) [lonevateee](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/lonevateee) $0.25 $0.27 1.08x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Heart (Tiger Orange) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-tiger-orange) [lonevateee](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/lonevateee) $0.25 $0.03 0.12x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | King Me (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-king-me-tracer-yellow) [kad1rov\_bek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kad1rov_bek) $0.25 $0.05 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Shark White) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-shark-white) [илья уебан](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B8%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BD) $0.25 $0.07 0.28x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Heart (Princess Pink) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-princess-pink) [илья уебан](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B8%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BD) $0.25 $0.07 0.28x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Heart (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-tracer-yellow) [илья уебан](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B8%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BD) $0.25 $0.04 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | 1G (Monster Purple) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-1g-monster-purple) [илья уебан](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B8%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BD) $0.25 $0.27 1.08x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Little Bock (Frog Green) graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-little-bock-frog-green) [илья уебан](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B8%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BD) $0.25 $0.28 1.12x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.25 | 99.11% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.25 | 94.00% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 7 0.3% Graffiti 14.0% base 0.0% Rare 2.6% remarkable 0.0% other 32.9% Common 37.9% Base Grade 7.0% Legendary 0.1% High Grade 1.8% #B0C3D9 3.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 99.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $99.11 on average: an expected loss of $0.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt