--- title: "Graphicdesign case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Graphicdesign ($8.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.77% from 28 items with odds, observed 71.50% over 35 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graphicdesign rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Graphicdesign](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graphicdesign) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Graphicdesign A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graphicdesign?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graphicdesign?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graphicdesign) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graphicdesign?window=all) Price · $8.49 Advertised RTP · 91.77% · EV $7.79 from 28 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.50% · 35 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 35 openings · below min 30 days · 35 openings · below min since tracking started · 35 openings · below min -0.5% 96.5% 193.5% **Small sample.** 35 openings and 8.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graphicdesign?window=24h) | 2 | 26.97% ±166.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graphicdesign?window=7d) | 35 | 71.50% ±39.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graphicdesign) | 35 | 71.50% ±39.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/graphicdesign?window=all) | 35 | 71.50% ±39.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| CMYK (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-factory-new) | 1 in 23,810 | $544 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| CMYK (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,208 | $213 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $153 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) | 1 in 1,495 | $125 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 323 | $64.46 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-factory-new) | 1 in 306 | $57.89 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-minimal-wear) | 1 in 155 | $49.27 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $35.25 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $24.48 | 6.4% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $19.08 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [P90 \| Attack Vector (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $13.10 | 8.5% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $12.26 | 8.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $12.19 | 8.2% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.18× | | [MP7 \| Astrolabe (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-astrolabe-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $11.06 | 6.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× | | [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $9.56 | 9.9% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× | | [P90 \| Attack Vector (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.44 | 5.4% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.43 | 4.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× | | [P90 \| Attack Vector (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.26 | 3.3% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.82 | 3.1% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× | | [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.59 | 2.3% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.07 | 2.0% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× | | [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.70 | 1.7% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.73× | | [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.91 | 1.2% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.73× | | [XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.89 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× | | [SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-wild-berry-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.87 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.51 | 1.0% | 5 | 1.7 | 2.89× | | [SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-wild-berry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.28 | 0.8% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.31× | | [XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.16 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/graphicdesign/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=graphicdesign) [SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-minimal-wear) [Aleksey Warnov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksey%20Warnov) $8.49 $1.51 0.18x 2026-11-11 00:10 UTC [SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-factory-new) [neX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/neX) $8.49 $3.07 0.36x 2026-11-10 16:03 UTC [SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-wild-berry-minimal-wear) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $8.49 $1.28 0.15x 2026-11-10 13:09 UTC [SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-minimal-wear) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $8.49 $1.51 0.18x 2026-11-10 13:09 UTC [SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-factory-new) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $8.49 $3.07 0.36x 2026-11-10 13:09 UTC [MP7 | Astrolabe (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-astrolabe-factory-new) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $8.49 $11.06 1.30x 2026-11-10 13:09 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-factory-new) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $8.49 $12.19 1.44x 2026-11-10 13:09 UTC [M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $8.49 $9.56 1.13x 2026-11-10 13:08 UTC [SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-minimal-wear) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $8.49 $1.51 0.18x 2026-11-10 13:08 UTC [AUG | Lil' Pig (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-field-tested) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $8.49 $24.48 2.88x 2026-11-10 13:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $8.49 | 91.77% | 28 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $8.49 | 94.00% | 28 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% rare 2.2% red 0.1% classified 0.3% uncommon 27.1% violet 2.7% restricted 5.2% industrial 4.8% Mythical 13.0% #4b69ff 9.9% blue 14.9% milspec 14.9% Rare 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.77 on average: an expected loss of $8.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt