---
title: "Green case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Green ($8.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 40 items with odds, observed 78.78% over 183 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/green
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Green](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/green)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Green

A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/green?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/green?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/green) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/green?window=all)

Price · $8.99

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $8.45 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.78% · 183 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 57.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 47 openings · below min

7 days · 78.78% ±12.73 183 openings

30 days · 78.78% ±12.73 183 openings

since tracking started · 78.78% ±12.73 183 openings

50.5% 76.3% 102.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 94.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (66.05% – 91.51%, 183 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/green?window=24h) | 47 | 76.42% ±25.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/green?window=7d) | 183 | 78.78% ±12.7 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/green) | 183 | 78.78% ±12.7 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/green?window=all) | 183 | 78.78% ±12.7 | −2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 287 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $547 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $398 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83,333 | $302 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37,037 | $245 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 17,241 | $190 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,937 | $125 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $103 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,859 | $84.63 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,022 | $68.79 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 463 | $51.68 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 261 | $40.73 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 181 | $38.28 | 2.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $30.27 | 2.9% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $25.48 | 3.5% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $20.30 | 3.9% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.42× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $17.32 | 13.7% | 11 | 19.2 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $16.27 | 5.6% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× |
| [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $12.34 | 5.4% | 6 | 10.7 | 0.56× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $11.71 | 6.5% | 9 | 13.4 | 0.67× |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $11.02 | 8.6% | 6 | 19.0 | 0.32× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $9.75 | 6.6% | 20 | 16.3 | 1.23× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $9.18 | 8.3% | 21 | 21.9 | 0.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $8.89 | 4.1% | 18 | 11.2 | 1.61× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $8.26 | 3.1% | 3 | 9.0 | 0.33× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $7.50 | 2.8% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $6.06 | 2.2% | 12 | 9.0 | 1.34× |
| [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $5.20 | 1.9% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $5.05 | 1.9% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $4.29 | 1.6% | 13 | 9.0 | 1.45× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $4.11 | 1.5% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× |
| [P2000 \| Turf (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $3.50 | 1.3% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $3.14 | 1.2% | 5 | 9.0 | 0.56× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $2.44 | 0.9% | 12 | 9.0 | 1.34× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $2.39 | 0.9% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $2.24 | 0.8% | 14 | 9.0 | 1.56× |
| [XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $1.89 | 0.7% | 14 | 9.0 | 1.56× |
| [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $1.86 | 0.7% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $1.70 | 0.6% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.23× |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $1.37 | 0.5% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $1.18 | 0.4% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/green/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=green)

[Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $8.99 $5.05 0.56x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $8.99 $17.32 1.93x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $8.99 $11.71 1.30x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $8.99 $2.39 0.27x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC

[Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $8.99 $5.05 0.56x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $8.99 $4.11 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $8.99 $11.02 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $8.99 $6.06 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-minimal-wear) [Алексей Юрпалов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%AE%D1%80%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2) $8.99 $2.24 0.25x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-factory-new) [Алексей Юрпалов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%AE%D1%80%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2) $8.99 $4.29 0.48x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $8.99 | 94.00% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% restricted 31.1% #ffd700 0.0% Immortal 0.0% sunny 0.0% covert knife 0.1% covert 0.1% gold 0.2% red 0.6% rare 0.8% classified 13.0% blue 6.1% mil spec 13.6% Rare 6.3% #d32ee6 3.1% Mythical 6.3% violet 6.3% #4b69ff 3.1% Mil Spec Grade 3.1% uncommon 3.1% milspec 3.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt