---
title: "Gta 6 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Gta 6 ($69.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 42 items with odds, observed 93.00% over 648 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gta6
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Gta 6](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gta6)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Gta 6

A case on CSGORUN (gta2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gta6?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gta6?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gta6) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gta6?window=all)

Price · $69.99

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $65.79 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.00% · 648 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 18 openings · below min

7 days · 93.00% ±6.79 648 openings

30 days · 93.00% ±6.79 648 openings

since tracking started · 93.00% ±6.79 648 openings

47.5% 88.8% 130.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gta6?window=24h) | 18 | 88.62% ±40.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gta6?window=7d) | 648 | 93.00% ±6.79 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gta6) | 648 | 93.00% ±6.79 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gta6?window=all) | 648 | 93.00% ±6.79 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 808 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $6,043 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,561 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,505 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40,000 | $1,814 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 16,129 | $1,378 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 8,475 | $1,079 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,181 | $894 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,618 | $722 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 1,182 | $566 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 739 | $470 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 388 | $372 | 1.5% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 225 | $310 | 2.1% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 150 | $252 | 2.6% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $194 | 2.9% | 6 | 7.9 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $172 | 3.5% | 11 | 10.7 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $145 | 3.7% | 20 | 13.3 | 1.50× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $140 | 14.3% | 54 | 54.3 | 0.99× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $120 | 5.5% | 31 | 24.4 | 1.27× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $94.58 | 5.6% | 32 | 31.3 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $91.54 | 6.6% | 33 | 38.1 | 0.87× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $82.12 | 8.0% | 57 | 51.5 | 1.11× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $78.36 | 6.7% | 46 | 45.8 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $69.60 | 4.1% | 29 | 31.4 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $67.16 | 8.2% | 61 | 65.1 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $63.00 | 2.8% | 18 | 23.4 | 0.77× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $52.19 | 2.3% | 14 | 23.4 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $48.30 | 2.1% | 23 | 23.4 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $41.66 | 1.8% | 24 | 23.4 | 1.03× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $39.53 | 1.7% | 29 | 23.4 | 1.24× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $34.41 | 1.5% | 28 | 23.4 | 1.20× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $29.52 | 1.3% | 27 | 23.4 | 1.16× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $27.83 | 1.2% | 31 | 23.4 | 1.33× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $25.78 | 1.1% | 23 | 23.4 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $22.09 | 1.0% | 24 | 23.4 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $21.26 | 0.9% | 21 | 23.4 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $17.78 | 0.8% | 12 | 23.4 | 0.51× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $17.40 | 0.8% | 20 | 23.4 | 0.86× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $16.37 | 0.7% | 26 | 23.4 | 1.11× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $12.37 | 0.5% | 15 | 23.4 | 0.64× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $12.01 | 0.5% | 23 | 23.4 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $10.03 | 0.4% | 22 | 23.4 | 0.94× |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $9.21 | 0.4% | 24 | 23.3 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/gta6/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=gta6)

[P250 | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $69.99 $27.83 0.40x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $69.99 $16.37 0.23x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $69.99 $140 2.00x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $69.99 $94.58 1.35x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-minimal-wear) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $69.99 $12.01 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $69.99 $78.36 1.12x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $69.99 $91.54 1.31x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $69.99 $94.58 1.35x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $69.99 $52.19 0.75x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $69.99 $82.12 1.17x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $69.99 | 94.00% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 2.9% epic 1.3% covert 31.6% restricted 3.1% gold 3.0% classified 27.0% Mil Spec Grade 8.6% mil spec 13.8% Ancient 2.9% uncommon 2.9% #4b69ff 2.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt