---
title: "Gut case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Gut ($67.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.62% from 29 items with odds, observed 76.32% over 10 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gut
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Gut](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gut)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Gut

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gut?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gut?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gut) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gut?window=all)

Price · $67.99

Advertised RTP · 92.62% · EV $62.97 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.32% · 10 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 38.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 10 openings · below min

30 days · 10 openings · below min

since tracking started · 10 openings · below min

48.0% 76.3% 104.5%

**Small sample.** 10 openings and 3.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gut?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gut?window=7d) | 10 | 76.32% ±27.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gut) | 10 | 76.32% ±27.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/gut?window=all) | 10 | 76.32% ±27.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 31,250 | $939 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,322 | $428 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,387 | $426 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 859 | $337 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 463 | $263 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 414 | $252 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 389 | $227 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 252 | $165 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 149 | $154 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 103 | $144 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $135 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $107 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $90.38 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $81.10 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $77.48 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $76.27 | 5.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $72.25 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $57.66 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $56.75 | 5.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $55.02 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $53.11 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $51.64 | 5.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $50.59 | 4.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $49.73 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $49.34 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $48.56 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $47.55 | 4.7% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $47.28 | 4.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $46.98 | 4.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/gut/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=gut)

[★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $67.99 $47.55 0.70x 2026-11-10 11:47 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $67.99 $51.64 0.76x 2026-11-10 11:47 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $67.99 $47.28 0.70x 2026-11-09 11:37 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Pu314](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Pu314) $67.99 $56.75 0.83x 2026-11-09 06:04 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $67.99 $47.55 0.70x 2026-11-08 21:28 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $67.99 $46.98 0.69x 2026-11-08 13:32 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [xs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/xs) $67.99 $47.28 0.70x 2026-11-06 23:13 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $67.99 $46.98 0.69x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $67.99 $50.59 0.74x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $67.99 $76.27 1.12x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $67.99 | 92.62% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $67.99 | 94.00% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 75.1% Covert 6.4% #ffd700 6.2% Immortal 6.2% gold 6.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.62 on average: an expected loss of $7.38 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt