--- title: "Hallucination case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hallucination ($6.28) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.89% from 20 items with odds, observed 72.38% over 258 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hallucination rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Hallucination](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hallucination) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Hallucination A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hallucination?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hallucination?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hallucination) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hallucination?window=all) Price · $6.28 Advertised RTP · 93.89% · EV $5.90 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 72.38% · 258 openings, odds method Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 76.13% ±32.43 139 openings 30 days · 72.38% ±23.91 258 openings since tracking started · 72.38% ±23.91 258 openings -0.5% 123.8% 248.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hallucination?window=24h) | 3 | 32.43% ±214.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hallucination?window=7d) | 139 | 76.13% ±32.4 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hallucination) | 258 | 72.38% ±23.9 | −1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hallucination?window=all) | 258 | 72.38% ±23.9 | −1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 258 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $3,252 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,937 | $310 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,976 | $179 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 1,124 | $115 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 928 | $105 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 183 | $54.43 | 5.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $34.60 | 12.4% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.37× | | [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $26.66 | 12.5% | 3 | 7.1 | 0.42× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $14.04 | 14.7% | 14 | 15.9 | 0.88× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 14.3% | $6.70 | 16.2% | 34 | 36.9 | 0.92× | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-well-worn) | 15.9% | $6.05 | 16.3% | 38 | 41.0 | 0.93× | | [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $3.83 | 7.8% | 35 | 30.8 | 1.13× | | [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.87 | 2.3% | 16 | 18.8 | 0.85× | | [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.69 | 2.2% | 19 | 20.0 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-acid-wash-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.33 | 1.6% | 24 | 17.9 | 1.34× | | [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.22 | 1.3% | 19 | 15.9 | 1.19× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.86 | 0.8% | 14 | 13.4 | 1.04× | | [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.64 | 0.5% | 14 | 11.6 | 1.20× | | [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.62 | 0.4% | 8 | 10.6 | 0.76× | | [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.59 | 0.4% | 17 | 10.5 | 1.63× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/hallucination/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=hallucination) [AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $6.28 $1.69 0.27x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC [G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $6.28 $0.59 0.09x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC [UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $6.28 $3.83 0.61x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC [Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-well-worn) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $6.28 $6.05 0.96x 2026-11-09 13:30 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $6.28 $6.70 1.07x 2026-11-09 13:29 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $6.28 $14.04 2.24x 2026-11-09 13:29 UTC [G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-field-tested) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $6.28 $0.59 0.09x 2026-11-09 13:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $6.28 $6.70 1.07x 2026-11-09 13:29 UTC [SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $6.28 $1.87 0.30x 2026-11-09 13:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $6.28 $6.70 1.07x 2026-11-09 13:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $6.28 | 93.89% | 20 | | 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $6.09 | 96.82% | 20 | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.09 | 94.31% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 6.9% covert 0.2% Ancient 0.5% red 2.1% rare 2.8% classified 20.5% pink 27.8% restricted 12.5% violet 12.3% Mythical 10.2% mil spec 4.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.89 on average: an expected loss of $6.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt