---
title: "Harlequin case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Harlequin ($0.68) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.14% from 26 items with odds, observed 94.24% over 602 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/harlequin
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Harlequin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/harlequin)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Harlequin

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/harlequin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/harlequin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/harlequin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/harlequin?window=all)

Price · $0.68

Advertised RTP · 95.14% · EV $0.65 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.24% · 602 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 33 openings · below min

7 days · 94.24% ±8.55 602 openings

30 days · 94.24% ±8.55 602 openings

since tracking started · 94.24% ±8.55 602 openings

35.0% 72.2% 109.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/harlequin?window=24h) | 33 | 72.42% ±36.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/harlequin?window=7d) | 602 | 94.24% ±8.55 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/harlequin) | 602 | 94.24% ±8.55 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/harlequin?window=all) | 602 | 94.24% ±8.55 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 746 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) | 1 in 19,608 | $22.98 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,376 | $14.24 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,299 | $7.95 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-factory-new) | 1 in 901 | $7.61 | 1.3% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 858 | $6.88 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 236 | $4.24 | 2.8% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $3.39 | 4.0% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $2.50 | 4.8% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.97× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $2.29 | 5.1% | 10 | 10.8 | 0.92× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.39 | 7.4% | 25 | 25.7 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.08 | 8.0% | 36 | 35.8 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.98 | 8.6% | 34 | 42.6 | 0.80× |
| [SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.94 | 8.3% | 46 | 42.6 | 1.08× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.77 | 10.0% | 69 | 62.9 | 1.10× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.75 | 10.9% | 85 | 70.1 | 1.21× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.64 | 9.3% | 61 | 70.0 | 0.87× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.37 | 4.1% | 61 | 53.1 | 1.15× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.37 | 4.1% | 46 | 53.1 | 0.87× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.21 | 1.7% | 42 | 38.4 | 1.09× |
| [MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.18 | 1.4% | 35 | 37.3 | 0.94× |
| [MP5-SD \| Picnic (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-picnic-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.17 | 1.2% | 28 | 32.8 | 0.85× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.17 | 1.2% | 27 | 35.1 | 0.77× |
| [Tec-9 \| Banana Leaf (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-banana-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.14 | 0.9% | 24 | 30.4 | 0.79× |
| [XM1014 \| XoooM (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xooom-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.13 | 0.8% | 29 | 29.2 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.13 | 0.8% | 35 | 30.4 | 1.15× |
| [MP5-SD \| Picnic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-picnic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.10 | 0.5% | 31 | 25.1 | 1.24× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/harlequin/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=harlequin)

[SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-minimal-wear) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $0.68 $0.13 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-minimal-wear) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $0.68 $0.37 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-minimal-wear) [Mr.Morkovkin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Morkovkin) $0.68 $0.37 0.54x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC

[Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-field-tested) [Mr.Morkovkin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Morkovkin) $0.68 $0.21 0.31x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC

[AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $0.68 $2.50 3.68x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-minimal-wear) [скимабой](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B9) $0.68 $0.98 1.44x 2026-11-11 06:45 UTC

[SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-minimal-wear) [скимабой](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B9) $0.68 $0.13 0.19x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC

[Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-banana-leaf-factory-new) [скимабой](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B9) $0.68 $0.14 0.21x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC

[XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xooom-factory-new) [Максим Тельнов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%A2%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.68 $0.13 0.19x 2026-11-10 18:55 UTC

[Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-field-tested) [Максим Тельнов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%A2%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.68 $0.21 0.31x 2026-11-10 18:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.68 | 95.14% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.68 | 94.00% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 0.0% #d32ce6 0.0% Mythical 0.2% classified 0.1% restricted 1.7% #8847ff 5.6% #4b69ff 45.4% #5e98d9 18.5% milspec 9.4% Rare 7.1% Uncommon 8.0% blueLight 4.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.14 on average: an expected loss of $4.86 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt