--- title: "Havoc case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Havoc ($20.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.48% from 38 items with odds, observed 77.97% over 21 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/havoc rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Havoc](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/havoc) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Havoc A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/havoc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/havoc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/havoc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/havoc?window=all) Price · $20.99 Advertised RTP · 92.48% · EV $19.41 from 38 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.97% · 21 openings, sample method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 21 openings · below min 30 days · 21 openings · below min since tracking started · 21 openings · below min 64.0% 78.5% 93.0% **Small sample.** 21 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/havoc?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/havoc?window=7d) | 21 | 77.97% ±13.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/havoc) | 21 | 77.97% ±13.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/havoc?window=all) | 21 | 77.97% ±13.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $1,732 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52,632 | $1,009 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 22,727 | $619 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 8,621 | $383 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,846 | $331 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-factory-new) | 1 in 3,846 | $329 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,185 | $304 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-field-tested) | 1 in 1,332 | $228 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 632 | $170 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 259 | $119 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 158 | $90.86 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $83.57 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $81.01 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $78.03 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $67.40 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $67.16 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $56.67 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $35.55 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [M249 \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-predator-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $24.28 | 8.7% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.37× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $23.08 | 10.0% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $21.56 | 8.8% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.81× | | [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $17.66 | 3.5% | 5 | 0.8 | — | | [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $17.33 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $15.07 | 3.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $14.88 | 2.9% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $14.65 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $14.55 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $14.46 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [MP7 \| Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $8.71 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Phoenix Chalk (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $8.30 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $6.91 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Nova \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $6.76 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Nova \| Rust Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $4.78 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Houndstooth (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $4.31 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $3.63 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Nova \| Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $3.61 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [MP7 \| Vault Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $3.23 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Houndstooth (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $3.09 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/havoc/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=havoc) [Negev | Phoenix Stencil (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-factory-new) [extazi68](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/extazi68) $20.99 $17.66 0.84x 2026-11-07 19:25 UTC [Negev | Phoenix Stencil (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $20.99 $19.75 0.94x 2026-11-05 20:14 UTC [Negev | Phoenix Stencil (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $20.99 $19.75 0.94x 2026-11-05 20:14 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $20.99 $22.54 1.07x 2026-11-05 20:14 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $20.99 $21.79 1.04x 2026-11-05 20:14 UTC [P90 | Tiger Pit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $20.99 $13.28 0.63x 2026-11-05 20:14 UTC [Negev | Phoenix Stencil (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $20.99 $19.75 0.94x 2026-11-05 20:14 UTC [Negev | Phoenix Stencil (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $20.99 $18.04 0.86x 2026-11-05 20:14 UTC [P90 | Tiger Pit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $20.99 $13.28 0.63x 2026-11-05 20:14 UTC [M249 | Predator (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-predator-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $20.99 $24.28 1.16x 2026-11-05 20:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $20.99 | 92.48% | 38 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $20.99 | 94.00% | 38 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 2 11.5% covert 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% Classified 0.0% classified 0.3% restricted 2.2% Mythical 3.3% violet 1.3% mil spec 9.0% #4b69ff 15.0% consumer 7.0% blue 8.4% Rare 7.6% Mil Spec Grade 7.6% industrial 7.6% Common 3.8% Industrial Grade 11.5% Uncommon 3.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.48 on average: an expected loss of $7.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt