---
title: "Heisenberg case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Heisenberg ($11.64) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.98% from 49 items with odds, observed 90.00% over 3 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/heisenberg
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Heisenberg](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/heisenberg)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Heisenberg

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/heisenberg?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/heisenberg?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/heisenberg) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/heisenberg?window=all)

Price · $11.64

Advertised RTP · 93.98% · EV $10.94 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.00% · 3 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 2 openings · below min

30 days · 3 openings · below min

since tracking started · 3 openings · below min

-0.5% 122.8% 246.0%

**Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/heisenberg?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/heisenberg?window=7d) | 2 | 75.53% ±169.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/heisenberg) | 3 | 90.00% ±139.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/heisenberg?window=all) | 3 | 90.00% ±139.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,290 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,637 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,382 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $1,175 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,163 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 142,857 | $821 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $816 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 83,333 | $567 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,641 | $379 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 8,403 | $220 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $196 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $178 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 2,066 | $160 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,326 | $145 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 1,112 | $120 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-well-worn) | 1 in 437 | $81.57 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 339 | $67.16 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 251 | $63.81 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 215 | $59.23 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 198 | $54.44 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 187 | $53.71 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $35.86 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $28.68 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $19.60 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $17.24 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $14.79 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $14.29 | 6.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $13.01 | 6.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $12.66 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $12.36 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $11.28 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $10.30 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $7.98 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $6.89 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $6.60 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $6.27 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $5.41 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $5.41 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $5.09 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $4.83 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $4.62 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $3.44 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $2.66 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $1.35 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $1.15 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $0.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $0.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $0.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/heisenberg/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=heisenberg)

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) [MuradovTA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MuradovTA) $11.64 $13.01 1.12x 2026-11-05 22:59 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-factory-new) [Cucik](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Cucik) $11.98 $4.83 0.40x 2026-11-05 13:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $11.64 | 93.98% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $11.98 | 91.32% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.98 | 92.59% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% classified 7.4% covert 2.2% epic 0.0% mil spec 0.3% #4b69ff 7.9% restricted 16.2% #87c7ff 3.6% Legendary 5.2% Mythical 8.1% pink 9.1% Rare 9.0% industrial 5.8% consumer 4.6% #d32ce6 4.6% rare 4.4% violet 3.5% Uncommon 3.2% blueLight 1.8% blue 1.9% #8847ff 1.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.98 on average: an expected loss of $6.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt