---
title: "Hell case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Hell ($100.00) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.59% from 42 items with odds, observed 92.18% over 326 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hell
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Hell](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hell)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Hell

A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hell?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hell?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hell) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hell?window=all)

Price · $100.00

Advertised RTP · 90.59% · EV $90.59 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.18% · 326 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 91.37% ±10.77 306 openings

30 days · 92.18% ±10.44 326 openings

since tracking started · 92.18% ±10.44 326 openings

80.0% 91.8% 103.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hell?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hell?window=7d) | 306 | 91.37% ±10.8 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hell) | 326 | 92.18% ±10.4 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hell?window=all) | 326 | 92.18% ±10.4 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 326 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 142,857 | $6,856 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 76,923 | $5,485 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $2,729 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,403 | $1,955 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,294 | $1,163 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,789 | $1,028 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,182 | $896 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 605 | $752 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 381 | $629 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 212 | $445 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $375 | 2.7% | 5 | 2.1 | 2.37× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $316 | 3.2% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $283 | 3.6% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $241 | 3.5% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $215 | 3.9% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $192 | 4.1% | 7 | 6.4 | 1.10× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $191 | 4.9% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $165 | 5.0% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.79× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $133 | 5.0% | 17 | 11.1 | 1.54× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $125 | 5.5% | 10 | 13.0 | 0.77× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $118 | 6.0% | 18 | 15.1 | 1.19× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-dragon-fists-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $99.73 | 6.0% | 21 | 17.8 | 1.18× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $89.25 | 5.9% | 24 | 19.4 | 1.24× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $82.12 | 5.0% | 19 | 18.2 | 1.05× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $78.71 | 4.6% | 14 | 17.1 | 0.82× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $67.35 | 3.4% | 13 | 14.7 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $67.17 | 3.7% | 21 | 16.4 | 1.28× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $57.73 | 3.0% | 14 | 15.4 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $54.43 | 2.6% | 9 | 14.1 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $44.95 | 1.9% | 6 | 12.2 | 0.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $43.69 | 1.8% | 8 | 11.9 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $42.55 | 1.9% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Baroque Red (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $35.28 | 1.3% | 10 | 10.8 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $29.06 | 1.0% | 18 | 9.9 | 1.83× |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $23.75 | 0.7% | 6 | 9.1 | 0.66× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $21.14 | 0.6% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $18.15 | 0.4% | 10 | 7.3 | 1.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $14.36 | 0.3% | 14 | 6.5 | 2.15× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $10.44 | 0.2% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $9.13 | 0.2% | 2 | 5.1 | 0.39× |
| [Nova \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $6.29 | 0.1% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.08× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) | 1 in 81 | $5.89 | 0.1% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/hell/show`, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $100 $1,028 10.28x 2026-11-06 06:26 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $100 $629 6.29x 2026-11-06 06:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=hell)

[FAMAS | Spitfire (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-field-tested) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $100 $18.15 0.18x 2026-11-08 20:58 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-field-tested) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $100 $78.71 0.79x 2026-11-08 20:58 UTC

[P250 | Red Rock (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-minimal-wear) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $100 $23.75 0.24x 2026-11-08 20:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $100 $29.06 0.29x 2026-11-08 20:58 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-dragon-fists-field-tested) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $100 $99.73 1.00x 2026-11-08 20:58 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $100 $57.73 0.58x 2026-11-08 13:33 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $100 $42.55 0.43x 2026-11-08 13:33 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $100 $375 3.75x 2026-11-08 13:33 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-scorched-field-tested) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $100 $67.35 0.67x 2026-11-08 13:33 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $100 $445 4.45x 2026-11-08 13:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $100 | 90.59% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $100 | 92.24% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 39.6% classified 16.0% restricted 6.3% #ffd700 0.0% covert knife 4.8% extraordinary 3.9% sunny 2.5% epic 5.5% red 5.0% Ancient 4.3% mil spec 6.9% industrial 2.0% #4b69ff 1.8% Restricted 1.4% best hit $1,028 (10.28x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.59 on average: an expected loss of $9.41 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt