---
title: "Helloworld case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Helloworld ($0.20) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.82% from 25 items with odds, observed 94.80% over 7,690 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/helloworld
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Helloworld](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/helloworld)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Helloworld

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/helloworld?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/helloworld?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/helloworld) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/helloworld?window=all)

Price · $0.20

Advertised RTP · 91.82% · EV $0.18 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.80% · 7,690 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 92.25% ±2.59 3,494 openings

30 days · 94.80% ±1.76 7,690 openings

since tracking started · 94.80% ±1.76 7,690 openings

16.5% 93.8% 171.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.22% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (93.04% – 96.56%, 7,690 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/helloworld?window=24h) | 4 | 93.75% ±76.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/helloworld?window=7d) | 3,494 | 92.25% ±2.59 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/helloworld) | 7,690 | 94.80% ±1.76 | +2.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/helloworld?window=all) | 7,690 | 94.80% ±1.76 | +2.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,691 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21,739 | $10.24 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 1 in 3,802 | $4.12 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.48× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 157 | $0.87 | 3.0% | 54 | 48.9 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 171 | $0.85 | 2.7% | 55 | 44.9 | 1.23× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $0.66 | 3.5% | 79 | 74.9 | 1.06× |
| [FAMAS \| Half Sleeve (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-half-sleeve-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $0.54 | 5.1% | 151 | 133.8 | 1.13× |
| [SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $0.33 | 5.7% | 272 | 243.7 | 1.12× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.31 | 7.0% | 333 | 316.9 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-heavy-metal-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $0.26 | 5.0% | 273 | 269.3 | 1.01× |
| [Negev \| Bulkhead (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bulkhead-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.23 | 7.6% | 486 | 466.2 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.20 | 7.7% | 529 | 542.9 | 0.97× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.20 | 7.1% | 499 | 502.2 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.20 | 7.1% | 492 | 502.2 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.18 | 6.9% | 553 | 543.0 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.17 | 6.2% | 533 | 513.8 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.15 | 5.1% | 485 | 483.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.14 | 4.5% | 436 | 450.4 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.14 | 4.6% | 492 | 467.0 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $0.11 | 3.2% | 408 | 415.5 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.08 | 1.6% | 294 | 289.0 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $0.07 | 1.4% | 251 | 289.0 | 0.87× |
| [Galil AR \| Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-green-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.07 | 1.6% | 315 | 313.3 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.06 | 1.2% | 274 | 289.0 | 0.95× |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.05 | 1.0% | 251 | 289.0 | 0.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.02 | 0.3% | 173 | 201.0 | 0.86× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/helloworld/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=helloworld)

[M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-minimal-wear) [KFS1mple](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KFS1mple) $0.20 $0.14 0.70x 2026-11-10 15:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-heavy-metal-well-worn) [KFS1mple](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KFS1mple) $0.20 $0.26 1.30x 2026-11-10 14:00 UTC

[Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-field-tested) [KFS1mple](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KFS1mple) $0.20 $0.17 0.85x 2026-11-10 14:00 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-field-tested) [KFS1mple](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KFS1mple) $0.20 $0.18 0.90x 2026-11-10 14:00 UTC

[MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) [17.09.2010](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/17.09.2010) $0.20 $0.15 0.75x 2026-11-09 20:04 UTC

[Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-field-tested) [Rager](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Rager) $0.20 $0.05 0.25x 2026-11-09 18:59 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $0.20 $0.66 3.30x 2026-11-09 14:28 UTC

[MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) [dont even joke lad.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/dont%20even%20joke%20lad.) $0.20 $0.15 0.75x 2026-11-08 20:54 UTC

[MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) [Джон Сильвер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B6%D0%BE%D0%BD%20%D0%A1%D0%B8%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80) $0.20 $0.15 0.75x 2026-11-08 20:52 UTC

[MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) [idnbaise01](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/idnbaise01) $0.20 $0.15 0.75x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.20 | 91.82% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.20 | 92.74% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 0.6% violet 0.7% #8847ff 1.0% industrial 23.8% Rare 3.2% milspec 14.9% Mil Spec 3.5% blue 16.4% #4b69ff 21.3% light blue 6.3% Uncommon 5.9% #777777 2.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.82 on average: an expected loss of $8.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt