---
title: "Holidays case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Holidays ($3.69) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.86% from 42 items with odds, observed 75.10% over 162 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/holidays
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Holidays](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/holidays)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Holidays

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/holidays?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/holidays?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/holidays) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/holidays?window=all)

Price · $3.69

Advertised RTP · 93.86% · EV $3.46 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.10% · 162 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 75.87% ±25.80 154 openings

30 days · 75.10% ±25.16 162 openings

since tracking started · 75.10% ±25.16 162 openings

49.5% 76.0% 102.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/holidays?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/holidays?window=7d) | 154 | 75.87% ±25.8 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/holidays) | 162 | 75.10% ±25.2 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/holidays?window=all) | 162 | 75.10% ±25.2 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 162 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,132 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,958 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,522 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,163 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $798 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $505 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $488 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $470 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 200,000 | $390 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,000 | $332 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $315 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 43,478 | $160 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29,412 | $135 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 21,739 | $121 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-field-tested) | 1 in 17,241 | $115 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,376 | $71.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,066 | $48.30 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,754 | $44.37 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 613 | $31.86 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-well-worn) | 1 in 148 | $18.66 | 3.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $12.89 | 4.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $10.38 | 5.3% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $9.61 | 5.1% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $7.44 | 5.3% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $7.13 | 7.2% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.53× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.96 | 6.9% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.61× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.05 | 7.5% | 10 | 8.3 | 1.21× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.16 | 8.5% | 6 | 11.5 | 0.52× |
| [P2000 \| Turf (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $3.50 | 7.9% | 17 | 12.6 | 1.35× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $2.81 | 6.0% | 9 | 12.0 | 0.75× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $2.62 | 5.2% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.08× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $2.36 | 4.3% | 16 | 10.3 | 1.55× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $2.23 | 4.6% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.95× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $2.01 | 3.9% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.92 | 3.1% | 12 | 9.1 | 1.32× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $1.62 | 2.5% | 7 | 8.6 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.32 | 1.7% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $1.07 | 1.3% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $0.69 | 0.6% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.54× |
| [Nova \| Ocular (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.59 | 0.5% | 10 | 4.6 | 2.16× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $0.52 | 0.4% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.52× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $0.43 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/holidays/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=holidays)

[MP9 | Goo (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-well-worn) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.69 $1.07 0.29x 2026-11-10 10:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.69 $1.92 0.52x 2026-11-10 10:06 UTC

[FAMAS | Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.69 $2.62 0.71x 2026-11-10 10:05 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Naga (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.69 $1.62 0.44x 2026-11-10 10:05 UTC

[P90 | Randy Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-well-worn) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.69 $0.69 0.19x 2026-11-10 10:05 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.69 $1.32 0.36x 2026-11-10 10:04 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.69 $1.32 0.36x 2026-11-10 10:04 UTC

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.69 $2.36 0.64x 2026-11-10 10:03 UTC

[P2000 | Turf (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.69 $3.50 0.95x 2026-11-10 10:03 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.69 $2.01 0.54x 2026-11-10 10:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.69 | 93.86% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.79 | 91.38% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.79 | 94.16% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 4.2% extraordinary 0.0% covert knife 0.0% classified 2.9% #ffd700 0.0% sunny 0.0% legendary 0.0% restricted 29.1% covert 0.0% Ancient 0.2% red 0.0% epic 0.0% industrial 0.7% #8847ff 11.1% pink 10.9% mil spec 7.1% #4b69ff 7.8% Mythical 9.2% blue 6.7% Rare 10.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.86 on average: an expected loss of $6.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt