---
title: "Horizon case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Horizon ($3.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.07% from 36 items with odds, observed 97.46% over 110 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/horizon
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Horizon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/horizon)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Horizon

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/horizon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/horizon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/horizon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/horizon?window=all)

Price · $3.99

Advertised RTP · 92.07% · EV $3.67 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.46% · 110 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 55.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 110 openings · below min

30 days · 110 openings · below min

since tracking started · 110 openings · below min

85.0% 97.5% 110.0%

**Small sample.** 110 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/horizon?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/horizon?window=7d) | 110 | 97.46% ±12.0 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/horizon) | 110 | 97.46% ±12.0 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/horizon?window=all) | 110 | 97.46% ±12.0 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $546 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $400 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $300 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $178 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $135 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 90,909 | $99.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28,571 | $70.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 7,299 | $45.93 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 4,739 | $42.54 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) | 1 in 3,215 | $33.88 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 747 | $22.60 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-factory-new) | 1 in 329 | $17.32 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 146 | $12.80 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $9.75 | 2.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $9.13 | 3.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $8.71 | 4.1% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.12× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $7.21 | 5.3% | 6 | 3.0 | 2.02× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $6.88 | 5.5% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.84× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $5.74 | 5.6% | 9 | 3.9 | 2.29× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $5.66 | 9.9% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $5.41 | 7.2% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.49× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $5.41 | 7.1% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.57× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $5.22 | 8.5% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.46× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $4.63 | 10.3% | 5 | 9.0 | 0.55× |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $3.70 | 4.6% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.79× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $3.34 | 4.2% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.38× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $3.13 | 3.9% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.93 | 2.4% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [P90 \| Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.85 | 2.3% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.50 | 1.9% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.94 | 1.2% | 9 | 5.1 | 1.78× |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.93 | 1.2% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.93 | 1.2% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.38× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.69 | 0.9% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.79× |
| [P90 \| Traction (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.58 | 0.7% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.79× |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.51 | 0.6% | 2 | 5.1 | 0.39× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/horizon/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=horizon)

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) [Володя Шаталов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%8F%20%D0%A8%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2) $3.99 $7.21 1.81x 2026-11-09 19:39 UTC

[Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.99 $3.70 0.93x 2026-11-08 11:50 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.99 $5.41 1.36x 2026-11-08 11:50 UTC

[AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-factory-new) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.99 $1.50 0.38x 2026-11-08 11:50 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.99 $5.66 1.42x 2026-11-08 11:50 UTC

[P90 | Traction (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.99 $0.58 0.15x 2026-11-08 11:50 UTC

[MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.99 $4.63 1.16x 2026-11-08 11:49 UTC

[P90 | Traction (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-minimal-wear) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.99 $0.58 0.15x 2026-11-08 06:03 UTC

[MP9 | Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-minimal-wear) [ERG](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ERG) $3.99 $0.51 0.13x 2026-11-06 23:38 UTC

[P90 | Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) [Бобр жора](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%80%20%D0%B6%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0) $3.99 $1.85 0.46x 2026-11-06 11:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $3.99 | 92.07% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.99 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 16.9% pink 0.1% restricted 28.8% mil spec 35.8% Mythical 13.8% Rare 4.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.07 on average: an expected loss of $7.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt