---
title: "Hot case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Hot ($0.63) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.81% from 49 items with odds, observed 92.23% over 5,395 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hot
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Hot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hot)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Hot

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hot?window=all)

Price · $0.63

Advertised RTP · 93.81% · EV $0.59 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.23% · 5,395 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.46% ±24.10 908 openings

7 days · 93.01% ±10.44 4,835 openings

30 days · 92.23% ±9.89 5,395 openings

since tracking started · 92.23% ±9.89 5,395 openings

70.5% 95.2% 120.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hot?window=24h) | 908 | 95.46% ±24.1 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hot?window=7d) | 4,835 | 93.01% ±10.4 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hot) | 5,395 | 92.23% ±9.89 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/hot?window=all) | 5,395 | 92.23% ±9.89 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,395 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,805 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $644 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $552 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $510 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $354 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $328 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $166 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $158 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $123 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-seigaiha-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $79.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111,111 | $53.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 90,909 | $45.93 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90,909 | $43.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 40,000 | $29.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41,667 | $28.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Col. Mangos Dabisi \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/col-mangos-dabisi-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 21,277 | $23.92 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-bengal-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 13,333 | $20.70 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,364 | $18.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 7,299 | $15.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,289 | $12.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 4,587 | $12.81 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-well-worn) | 1 in 4,717 | $12.49 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.62× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,016 | $12.21 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-fleet-flock-well-worn) | 1 in 3,922 | $10.95 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,331 | $8.08 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 779 | $6.13 | 1.3% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.72× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 698 | $5.60 | 1.4% | 9 | 7.7 | 1.16× |
| [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-minimal-wear) | 1 in 744 | $5.46 | 1.2% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 312 | $4.45 | 2.4% | 13 | 17.3 | 0.75× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-well-worn) | 1 in 319 | $4.29 | 2.3% | 7 | 16.9 | 0.41× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 214 | $3.75 | 3.0% | 31 | 25.2 | 1.23× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $2.91 | 6.8% | 85 | 74.4 | 1.14× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $2.35 | 5.0% | 80 | 67.5 | 1.19× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $1.93 | 5.0% | 72 | 82.6 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.97 | 6.5% | 203 | 213.2 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.83 | 11.2% | 434 | 431.6 | 1.01× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.82 | 8.9% | 353 | 345.8 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Lionfish (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-lionfish-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.68 | 10.8% | 510 | 506.0 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.43 | 6.5% | 494 | 480.6 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.42 | 5.9% | 454 | 444.2 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.33 | 4.3% | 392 | 416.0 | 0.94× |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.30 | 3.7% | 378 | 398.1 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.20 | 2.1% | 346 | 338.0 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.17 | 1.5% | 277 | 281.5 | 0.98× |
| [MP5-SD \| Picnic (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-picnic-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.17 | 1.6% | 292 | 298.9 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.17 | 1.7% | 337 | 323.0 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.13 | 1.0% | 259 | 253.1 | 1.02× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.06 | 0.3% | 168 | 166.7 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| ZywOo \| Austin 2025 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zywoo-austin-2025) | 1 in 30 | $0.05 | 0.3% | 181 | 181.8 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/hot/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) [Legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Legenda) $0.63 $45.93 72.90x 2026-11-09 03:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=hot)

[MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jeff) $0.63 $0.33 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jeff) $0.63 $0.17 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Lionfish (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-lionfish-well-worn) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jeff) $0.63 $0.68 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-minimal-wear) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jeff) $0.63 $0.30 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-minimal-wear) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jeff) $0.63 $0.30 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jeff) $0.63 $0.43 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jeff) $0.63 $2.91 4.62x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jeff) $0.63 $0.17 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Sticker | ZywOo | Austin 2025 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zywoo-austin-2025) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jeff) $0.63 $0.05 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Lionfish (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-lionfish-well-worn) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jeff) $0.63 $0.68 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.63 | 93.81% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.63 | 95.01% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% gold 0.0% covert knife 0.0% epic 0.0% rare 0.0% Immortal 0.0% sunny 0.0% pink 0.3% red 0.0% violet 8.0% classified 0.5% restricted 13.0% Mythical 1.6% uncommon 0.1% Legendary 0.6% mil spec 0.1% Restricted 9.4% milspec 16.3% #8847ff 8.2% industrial 7.7% blue 6.3% Uncommon 5.2% #5e98d9 10.2% common 6.0% #87c7ff 3.1% Rare 3.4% best hit $45.93 (72.90x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.81 on average: an expected loss of $6.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt