--- title: "Industrial case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Industrial ($0.39) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.49% from 38 items with odds, observed 93.28% over 4,738 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/industrial rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/industrial) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Industrial A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/industrial?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/industrial?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/industrial) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/industrial?window=all) Price · $0.39 Advertised RTP · 91.49% · EV $0.36 from 38 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.28% · 4,738 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 56.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.32% ±6.30 1,019 openings 7 days · 93.28% ±2.92 4,738 openings 30 days · 93.28% ±2.92 4,738 openings since tracking started · 93.28% ±2.92 4,738 openings 89.5% 96.5% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/industrial?window=24h) | 1,019 | 96.32% ±6.30 | +1.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/industrial?window=7d) | 4,738 | 93.28% ±2.92 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/industrial) | 4,738 | 93.28% ±2.92 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/industrial?window=all) | 4,738 | 93.28% ±2.92 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,143 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $49.65 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Facets (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $39.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,667 | $27.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $18.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 14,925 | $12.47 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) | 1 in 37,037 | $12.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 6,711 | $7.54 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 2,841 | $5.45 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× | | [AUG \| Condemned (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-factory-new) | 1 in 1,410 | $3.68 | 0.7% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× | | [MP7 \| Vault Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 630 | $3.23 | 1.4% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.86× | | [FAMAS \| CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 324 | $2.20 | 1.9% | 22 | 15.9 | 1.38× | | [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) | 1 in 158 | $1.76 | 3.1% | 44 | 32.6 | 1.35× | | [AUG \| Spalted Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-spalted-wood-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $1.55 | 3.9% | 42 | 46.5 | 0.90× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $1.14 | 4.2% | 69 | 67.7 | 1.02× | | [SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $0.94 | 5.0% | 110 | 98.6 | 1.12× | | [P90 \| Straight Dimes (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-straight-dimes-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $0.81 | 5.8% | 129 | 131.2 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $0.62 | 5.8% | 185 | 171.6 | 1.08× | | [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.59 | 7.4% | 241 | 229.5 | 1.05× | | [FAMAS \| Half Sleeve (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-half-sleeve-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.54 | 8.1% | 259 | 275.4 | 0.94× | | [FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-halftone-wash-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.45 | 8.3% | 326 | 337.8 | 0.96× | | [SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-halftone-whorl-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.44 | 9.1% | 387 | 377.9 | 1.02× | | [Galil AR \| NV (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-nv-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.41 | 9.5% | 438 | 426.2 | 1.03× | | [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.33 | 3.3% | 181 | 182.3 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.31 | 3.1% | 202 | 182.3 | 1.11× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.26 | 2.6% | 180 | 182.3 | 0.99× | | [MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.23 | 2.3% | 183 | 182.3 | 1.00× | | [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.17 | 1.7% | 169 | 182.3 | 0.93× | | [MAC-10 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.17 | 1.7% | 195 | 182.3 | 1.07× | | [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.16 | 1.6% | 185 | 182.3 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.14 | 1.4% | 168 | 182.3 | 0.92× | | [MP9 \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.13 | 1.3% | 168 | 182.3 | 0.92× | | [Five-SeveN \| Midnight Paintover (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-midnight-paintover-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.12 | 1.2% | 185 | 182.3 | 1.01× | | [UMP-45 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.09 | 0.9% | 172 | 182.3 | 0.94× | | [SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.09 | 0.9% | 166 | 182.3 | 0.91× | | [Negev \| Bulkhead (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bulkhead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.07 | 0.7% | 193 | 182.3 | 1.06× | | [MP7 \| Motherboard (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.07 | 0.7% | 185 | 182.3 | 1.01× | | [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.06 | 0.6% | 166 | 182.3 | 0.91× | | [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.05 | 0.5% | 182 | 182.2 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/industrial/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=industrial) [MP9 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-minimal-wear) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.39 $0.13 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-half-sleeve-factory-new) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.39 $0.54 1.38x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MAC-10 | Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-minimal-wear) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.39 $0.17 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-carbon-fiber-factory-new) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.39 $0.09 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-midnight-paintover-factory-new) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.39 $0.12 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-factory-new) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.39 $0.31 0.79x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-minimal-wear) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.39 $0.06 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-minimal-wear) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.39 $0.06 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.39 $1.14 2.92x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-minimal-wear) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.39 $0.06 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.39 | 91.49% | 38 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.39 | 94.00% | 38 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed industrial 29.3% #87c7ff 10.7% Uncommon 28.2% #5e98d9 9.3% light blue 15.4% Industrial Grade 3.5% blueLight 3.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.49 on average: an expected loss of $8.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt