---
title: "Inferno case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Inferno ($7.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.00% from 15 items with odds, observed 86.10% over 51 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Inferno](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Inferno

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno?window=all)

Price · $7.49

Advertised RTP · 91.00% · EV $6.82 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.10% · 51 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 40.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 51 openings · below min

30 days · 51 openings · below min

since tracking started · 51 openings · below min

-0.5% 87.0% 174.5%

**Small sample.** 51 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno?window=24h) | 1 | 19.36% ±154.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno?window=7d) | 51 | 86.10% ±14.1 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno) | 51 | 86.10% ±14.1 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno?window=all) | 51 | 86.10% ±14.1 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 1,418 | $105 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 515 | $64.93 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nova \| Walnut (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-factory-new) | 1 in 73 | $31.13 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $20.23 | 7.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $10.54 | 9.0% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.35× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $9.67 | 12.1% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $9.03 | 12.1% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-field-tested) | 12.7% | $7.71 | 14.3% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× |
| [MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 13.2% | $7.34 | 14.2% | 7 | 6.7 | 1.04× |
| [Nova \| Walnut (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-minimal-wear) | 10.2% | $4.58 | 6.9% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.54× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.77 | 5.1% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.28× |
| [P250 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $3.76 | 5.0% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× |
| [P250 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $2.17 | 2.2% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.44× |
| [Nova \| Walnut (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.52 | 1.3% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.45 | 1.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/inferno/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=inferno)

[MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-field-tested) [19 yo tałent](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/19%20yo%20ta%C5%82ent) $7.49 $1.45 0.19x 2026-11-10 22:29 UTC

[MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $1.48 0.20x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $2.19 0.29x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $7.74 1.03x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[Nova | Walnut (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $4.57 0.61x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $9.50 1.27x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $2.19 0.29x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-anodized-navy-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $9.92 1.32x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $7.34 0.98x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $7.74 1.03x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $7.49 | 91.00% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $7.49 | 94.00% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed industrial 24.4% mil spec 27.0% consumer 11.6% #4b69ff 5.8% Common 18.8% Uncommon 6.8% Consumer Grade 5.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.00 on average: an expected loss of $9.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt