---
title: "Inferno 2018 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Inferno 2018 ($0.68) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 96.72% from 35 items with odds, observed 93.13% over 346 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno2018
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Inferno 2018](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno2018)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Inferno 2018

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno2018?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno2018?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno2018) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno2018?window=all)

Price · $0.68

Advertised RTP · 96.72% · EV $0.66 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.13% · 346 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 64 openings · below min

7 days · 93.13% ±10.81 346 openings

30 days · 93.13% ±10.81 346 openings

since tracking started · 93.13% ±10.81 346 openings

62.5% 88.3% 114.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno2018?window=24h) | 64 | 88.07% ±25.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno2018?window=7d) | 346 | 93.13% ±10.8 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno2018) | 346 | 93.13% ±10.8 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/inferno2018?window=all) | 346 | 93.13% ±10.8 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 471 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $48.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $15.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 11,364 | $11.71 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 6,803 | $10.24 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-factory-new) | 1 in 6,757 | $9.83 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,825 | $6.89 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 1 in 1,513 | $6.43 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 900 | $5.66 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 371 | $4.16 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.58× |
| [MP9 \| Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) | 1 in 148 | $3.25 | 3.3% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 1 in 191 | $2.97 | 2.4% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $2.90 | 3.4% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $2.77 | 2.7% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 138 | $2.30 | 2.5% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-factory-new) | 1 in 99 | $2.20 | 3.4% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $1.44 | 5.0% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.12× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.43 | 7.3% | 11 | 15.9 | 0.69× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $1.32 | 4.5% | 4 | 10.6 | 0.38× |
| [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.87 | 9.1% | 32 | 32.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.82 | 8.4% | 30 | 31.7 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.71 | 8.8% | 41 | 38.5 | 1.07× |
| [MAC-10 \| Calf Skin (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-calf-skin-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.57 | 4.1% | 21 | 22.0 | 0.95× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Brake Light (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-brake-light-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.56 | 4.0% | 18 | 22.0 | 0.82× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.56 | 4.0% | 33 | 22.0 | 1.50× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Brake Light (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-brake-light-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.53 | 3.8% | 26 | 22.0 | 1.18× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.47 | 3.3% | 27 | 22.0 | 1.23× |
| [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.46 | 3.3% | 25 | 22.0 | 1.14× |
| [UMP-45 \| Mudder (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.37 | 2.6% | 26 | 22.0 | 1.18× |
| [MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.35 | 2.5% | 28 | 22.0 | 1.27× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.20 | 1.4% | 20 | 22.0 | 0.91× |
| [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.20 | 1.4% | 14 | 22.0 | 0.64× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.16 | 1.1% | 18 | 22.0 | 0.82× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.16 | 1.1% | 18 | 22.0 | 0.82× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.16 | 1.1% | 18 | 22.0 | 0.82× |
| [MAC-10 \| Calf Skin (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-calf-skin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.10 | 0.7% | 29 | 22.0 | 1.32× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/inferno2018/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=inferno2018)

[PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.68 $0.16 0.24x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-minimal-wear) [Максим Кукленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $0.68 $0.16 0.24x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-minimal-wear) [Максим Кукленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $0.68 $0.20 0.29x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) [Максим Кукленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $0.68 $0.56 0.82x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-minimal-wear) [Максим Кукленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $0.68 $0.16 0.24x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC

[UMP-45 | Mudder (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-factory-new) [Максим Кукленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $0.68 $0.37 0.54x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-brake-light-factory-new) [Максим Кукленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $0.68 $0.53 0.78x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC

[MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-calf-skin-factory-new) [Максим Кукленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $0.68 $0.57 0.84x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC

[MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) [Максим Кукленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $0.68 $0.20 0.29x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC

[UMP-45 | Mudder (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-factory-new) [Максим Кукленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $0.68 $0.37 0.54x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.68 | 96.72% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.68 | 94.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.2% restricted 4.5% violet 0.0% Common 5.3% Legendary 0.5% #8847ff 0.6% Industrial Grade 0.7% Rare 7.9% blue 6.9% mil spec 26.4% Uncommon 14.0% milspec 4.7% Mil Spec Grade 4.7% Consumer Grade 9.3% industrial 9.3% light blue 4.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 96.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $96.72 on average: an expected loss of $3.28 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt