---
title: "Italy case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Italy ($0.20) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.19% from 34 items with odds, observed 96.96% over 1,227 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/italy
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Italy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/italy)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Italy

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/italy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/italy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/italy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/italy?window=all)

Price · $0.20

Advertised RTP · 95.19% · EV $0.19 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.96% · 1,227 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 107.67% ±15.10 193 openings

7 days · 96.96% ±5.99 1,227 openings

30 days · 96.96% ±5.99 1,227 openings

since tracking started · 96.96% ±5.99 1,227 openings

90.5% 107.0% 123.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/italy?window=24h) | 193 | 107.67% ±15.1 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/italy?window=7d) | 1,227 | 96.96% ±5.99 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/italy) | 1,227 | 96.96% ±5.99 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/italy?window=all) | 1,227 | 96.96% ±5.99 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,282 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $12.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $9.71 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 1,046 | $1.61 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.63× |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 808 | $1.48 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.26× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 1 in 570 | $1.37 | 1.3% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 427 | $1.32 | 1.6% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 320 | $1.15 | 1.9% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 240 | $1.04 | 2.3% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.50× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-factory-new) | 1 in 136 | $0.94 | 3.6% | 7 | 9.5 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 158 | $0.85 | 2.8% | 4 | 8.1 | 0.49× |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $0.70 | 3.9% | 17 | 13.7 | 1.24× |
| [AUG \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $0.63 | 4.2% | 12 | 16.1 | 0.75× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $0.62 | 3.6% | 15 | 14.1 | 1.06× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $0.53 | 5.7% | 29 | 26.1 | 1.11× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $0.52 | 5.6% | 33 | 26.1 | 1.27× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.45 | 7.6% | 48 | 41.3 | 1.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.25 | 10.9% | 107 | 106.0 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.21 | 5.1% | 60 | 59.0 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.18 | 4.4% | 53 | 59.0 | 0.90× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.17 | 4.1% | 67 | 59.0 | 1.13× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.17 | 4.1% | 54 | 59.0 | 0.91× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.15 | 3.6% | 58 | 59.0 | 0.98× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.14 | 3.4% | 60 | 59.0 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.14 | 3.4% | 55 | 59.0 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.12 | 2.9% | 58 | 59.0 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-calicamo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.10 | 2.4% | 64 | 59.0 | 1.08× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.08 | 1.9% | 67 | 59.0 | 1.13× |
| [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.07 | 1.7% | 57 | 59.0 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.07 | 1.7% | 50 | 59.0 | 0.85× |
| [XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-calicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.05 | 1.2% | 57 | 59.0 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.04 | 1.0% | 59 | 59.0 | 1.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.04 | 1.0% | 58 | 59.0 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.03 | 0.7% | 60 | 59.0 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.03 | 0.7% | 54 | 59.0 | 0.91× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/italy/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=italy)

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Ярослав Вахрушев](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%20%D0%92%D0%B0%D1%85%D1%80%D1%83%D1%88%D0%B5%D0%B2) $0.20 $0.25 1.25x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[XM1014 | CaliCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-calicamo-field-tested) [kepel1434](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kepel1434) $0.20 $0.05 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) [kepel1434](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kepel1434) $0.20 $0.18 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $0.20 $0.45 2.25x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) [Mr.Morkovkin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Morkovkin) $0.20 $0.08 0.40x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Stained (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-minimal-wear) [Турик Большаков](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BA%20%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%88%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.20 $0.17 0.85x 2026-11-11 09:42 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Stained (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-minimal-wear) [KARAT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KARAT) $0.20 $0.17 0.85x 2026-11-11 09:25 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Stained (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-field-tested) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.20 $0.07 0.35x 2026-11-11 09:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.20 $0.25 1.25x 2026-11-11 09:06 UTC

[P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.20 $0.07 0.35x 2026-11-11 09:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.20 | 95.19% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.20 | 94.00% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 9.2% industrial 33.5% mil spec 0.4% #4b69ff 2.2% restricted 0.9% consumer 20.2% blue 5.7% Common 1.3% Uncommon 12.9% #87c7ff 4.6% #5E98D9 4.6% #777777 4.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.19 on average: an expected loss of $4.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt