---
title: "Jackpot case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Jackpot ($34.23) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.99% from 42 items with odds, observed 78.02% over 14 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jackpot
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Jackpot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jackpot)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Jackpot

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jackpot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jackpot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jackpot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jackpot?window=all)

Price · $34.23

Advertised RTP · 93.99% · EV $32.17 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.02% · 14 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 53.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 12 openings · below min

30 days · 14 openings · below min

since tracking started · 14 openings · below min

-0.5% 77.8% 156.0%

**Small sample.** 14 openings and 2.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jackpot?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jackpot?window=7d) | 12 | 68.84% ±82.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jackpot) | 14 | 78.02% ±77.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jackpot?window=all) | 14 | 78.02% ±77.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $13.2K | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $8,093 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,944 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $5,910 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $2,570 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90,909 | $2,057 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 66,667 | $1,742 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,621 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 22,727 | $1,175 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $1,163 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 21,277 | $1,120 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 16,949 | $1,031 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 7,813 | $767 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 5,128 | $628 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 4,808 | $614 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-violet-beadwork-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,876 | $599 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 3,759 | $538 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 2,088 | $449 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,287 | $366 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 569 | $301 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 728 | $293 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 544 | $268 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 221 | $177 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $160 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $137 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $128 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $92.44 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $67.17 | 5.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $52.24 | 8.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $46.75 | 8.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $35.49 | 10.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $34.49 | 9.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $34.36 | 9.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.62× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $21.83 | 5.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $17.23 | 3.9% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $12.81 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $10.70 | 2.0% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $10.20 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.53 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.06 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $4.96 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $4.62 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/jackpot/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=jackpot)

[Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-factory-new) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $34.23 $21.83 0.64x 2026-11-09 22:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $34.00 $10.70 0.31x 2026-11-05 06:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $34.00 $6.06 0.18x 2026-11-04 17:28 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $34.00 $34.49 1.01x 2026-11-04 17:28 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $34.00 $34.36 1.01x 2026-11-04 17:28 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $34.00 $46.75 1.38x 2026-11-04 17:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $34.00 $6.53 0.19x 2026-11-04 17:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $34.00 $12.81 0.38x 2026-11-04 17:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $34.00 $10.70 0.31x 2026-11-04 17:28 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $34.00 $34.36 1.01x 2026-11-04 17:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $34.23 | 93.99% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $34.00 | 94.63% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $34.00 | 96.40% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 6.6% contraband 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% rare 8.2% legendary 0.0% mil spec 1.0% classified 7.8% Immortal 1.0% restricted 0.9% red 24.9% pink 14.9% uncommon 13.3% Mythical 11.5% Classified 9.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.99 on average: an expected loss of $6.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt