--- title: "Jason c case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Jason c ($19.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.05% from 40 items with odds, observed 89.47% over 307 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jason-c rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Jason c](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jason-c) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Jason c A case on CSGORUN (gta2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jason-c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jason-c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jason-c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jason-c?window=all) Price · $19.99 Advertised RTP · 94.05% · EV $18.80 from 40 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.47% · 307 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 33.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 52.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 57 openings · below min 7 days · 89.47% ±7.59 307 openings 30 days · 89.47% ±7.59 307 openings since tracking started · 89.47% ±7.59 307 openings 59.0% 78.3% 97.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jason-c?window=24h) | 57 | 78.24% ±18.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jason-c?window=7d) | 307 | 89.47% ±7.59 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jason-c) | 307 | 89.47% ±7.59 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/jason-c?window=all) | 307 | 89.47% ±7.59 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 364 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $6,043 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,284 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $846 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $614 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $366 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30,303 | $310 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,628 | $236 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 5,076 | $169 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 3,021 | $145 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 905 | $112 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 517 | $98.26 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 356 | $85.79 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 188 | $62.30 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 142 | $58.28 | 2.2% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $48.30 | 3.0% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $41.66 | 5.6% | 10 | 9.2 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $34.99 | 4.7% | 12 | 9.2 | 1.31× | | [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $31.86 | 5.4% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $27.85 | 6.8% | 17 | 16.7 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $27.83 | 5.7% | 9 | 13.9 | 0.65× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $25.78 | 7.9% | 23 | 21.0 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $22.09 | 9.2% | 25 | 28.5 | 0.88× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $21.56 | 8.7% | 33 | 27.8 | 1.19× | | [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $21.26 | 7.8% | 23 | 25.1 | 0.91× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $17.78 | 3.1% | 9 | 12.1 | 0.74× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $17.40 | 3.1% | 11 | 12.1 | 0.91× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $16.37 | 2.9% | 13 | 12.1 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $14.95 | 2.6% | 9 | 12.1 | 0.74× | | [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $14.38 | 2.5% | 15 | 12.1 | 1.24× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $12.01 | 2.1% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.83× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $10.48 | 1.9% | 16 | 12.1 | 1.32× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $10.38 | 1.8% | 13 | 12.1 | 1.07× | | [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $9.46 | 1.7% | 8 | 12.1 | 0.66× | | [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $8.54 | 1.5% | 11 | 12.1 | 0.91× | | [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $6.54 | 1.2% | 8 | 12.1 | 0.66× | | [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $4.69 | 0.8% | 13 | 12.1 | 1.07× | | [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $4.38 | 0.8% | 16 | 12.1 | 1.32× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $3.90 | 0.7% | 16 | 12.1 | 1.32× | | [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $3.13 | 0.4% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $2.70 | 0.5% | 11 | 12.0 | 0.91× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/jason_c/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=jason-c) [UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-factory-new) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $19.99 $21.26 1.06x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $19.99 $4.38 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $19.99 $3.90 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [P250 | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $19.99 $27.83 1.39x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $19.99 $3.13 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $19.99 $21.56 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $19.99 $21.56 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [USP-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $19.99 $4.69 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $19.99 $3.90 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $19.99 $10.38 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 15:30 UTC | $19.99 | 94.05% | 40 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $19.99 | 94.00% | 40 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% classified 39.9% restricted 4.0% rare 0.0% mil spec 17.6% covert 2.1% Ancient 5.9% Classified 4.6% uncommon 10.2% #8847ff 3.3% Mythical 6.6% Legendary 3.3% pink 2.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.05 on average: an expected loss of $5.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt