---
title: "Karambit case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Karambit ($999.00) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.86% from 30 items with odds, observed 110.78% over 1 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/karambit
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Karambit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/karambit)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Karambit

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/karambit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/karambit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/karambit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/karambit?window=all)

Price · $999.00

Advertised RTP · 92.86% · EV $927.68 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 110.78% · 1 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 54.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 1 openings · below min

30 days · 1 openings · below min

since tracking started · 1 openings · below min

-0.5% 115.0% 230.5%

**Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/karambit?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/karambit?window=7d) | 1 | 110.78% ±119.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/karambit) | 1 | 110.78% ±119.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/karambit?window=all) | 1 | 110.78% ±119.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,509 | $8,093 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,545 | $7,841 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 523 | $5,395 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 102 | $2,505 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $2,338 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 88 | $2,311 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $2,255 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 73 | $2,230 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $2,222 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,814 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $1,637 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $1,491 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1,354 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $1,331 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1,107 | 7.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1,079 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1,028 | 8.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $848 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $727 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $615 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $537 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $497 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $479 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $440 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $428 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $423 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $409 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $404 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $397 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $382 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/karambit/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $999 $1,107 1.11x 2026-11-09 18:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=karambit)

[★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $999 $1,107 1.11x 2026-11-09 18:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $999 | 92.86% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $999 | 94.00% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 68.9% epic 1.0% Covert 20.2% #ffd700 2.6% covert knife 7.4% best hit $1,107 (1.11x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.86 on average: an expected loss of $7.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt