---
title: "Katowice legacy case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Katowice legacy ($4.40) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.85% from 49 items with odds, observed 99.23% over 291 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/katowice-legacy
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Katowice legacy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/katowice-legacy)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Katowice legacy

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/katowice-legacy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/katowice-legacy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/katowice-legacy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/katowice-legacy?window=all)

Price · $4.40

Advertised RTP · 93.85% · EV $4.13 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.23% · 291 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 32 openings · below min

30 days · 99.23% ±12.41 291 openings

since tracking started · 99.23% ±12.41 291 openings

-0.5% 114.3% 229.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/katowice-legacy?window=24h) | 2 | 76.70% ±151.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/katowice-legacy?window=7d) | 32 | 78.48% ±37.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/katowice-legacy) | 291 | 99.23% ±12.4 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/katowice-legacy?window=all) | 291 | 99.23% ±12.4 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 309 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,163 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $848 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $637 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $511 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $334 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58,824 | $156 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 21,739 | $106 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 10,989 | $82.52 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,714 | $73.50 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 5,128 | $63.53 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 3,745 | $62.35 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,795 | $45.99 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 798 | $34.24 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 735 | $32.73 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 498 | $27.40 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 446 | $24.67 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 264 | $20.36 | 1.9% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.56× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $17.91 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 138 | $12.68 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $11.79 | 2.6% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $11.75 | 2.6% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $10.28 | 2.8% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) | 1 in 107 | $10.03 | 2.3% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $9.29 | 5.4% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $8.37 | 2.9% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.69× |
| [Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $7.94 | 3.3% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.12× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $7.81 | 2.8% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $6.39 | 3.8% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $5.86 | 3.9% | 4 | 8.5 | 0.47× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $5.66 | 4.7% | 16 | 10.7 | 1.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $5.45 | 4.5% | 12 | 10.4 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $5.42 | 4.4% | 17 | 10.5 | 1.62× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $4.69 | 3.7% | 12 | 10.1 | 1.19× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $4.38 | 4.4% | 7 | 12.8 | 0.55× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $4.05 | 3.3% | 12 | 10.5 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $3.90 | 4.1% | 12 | 13.5 | 0.89× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $3.54 | 3.7% | 14 | 13.5 | 1.04× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $3.42 | 3.6% | 12 | 13.5 | 0.89× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $3.29 | 3.5% | 14 | 13.5 | 1.04× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $3.02 | 3.2% | 7 | 13.5 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.70 | 2.8% | 18 | 13.5 | 1.34× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $2.39 | 2.5% | 19 | 13.4 | 1.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $1.81 | 1.9% | 15 | 13.4 | 1.12× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.44 | 1.5% | 16 | 13.4 | 1.20× |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.25 | 1.3% | 10 | 13.4 | 0.75× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.67 | 0.7% | 10 | 13.3 | 0.75× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.30 | 0.3% | 12 | 13.2 | 0.91× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 15 | 13.0 | 1.15× |
| [UMP-45 \| Green Swirl (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-green-swirl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/katowice_legacy/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=katowice-legacy)

[AK-47 | Crossfade (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $4.40 $2.70 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $4.40 $4.05 0.92x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) [karch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karch) $4.40 $5.45 1.24x 2026-11-07 21:16 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) [karch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karch) $4.40 $5.42 1.23x 2026-11-07 21:16 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [karch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karch) $4.40 $4.69 1.07x 2026-11-07 21:15 UTC

[M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $4.40 $1.25 0.28x 2026-11-07 17:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-well-worn) [Nagi S](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Nagi%20S) $4.40 $9.29 2.11x 2026-11-06 17:58 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) [goshkins](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/goshkins) $4.46 $7.81 1.75x 2026-11-05 18:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) [goshkins](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/goshkins) $4.46 $1.81 0.41x 2026-11-05 18:16 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Крутой\_Перец69](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D1%80%D1%83%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B9_%D0%9F%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%8669) $4.46 $4.69 1.05x 2026-11-05 17:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.40 | 93.85% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.46 | 92.59% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.46 | 92.35% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.0% sunny 0.0% covert 0.2% gold 0.1% covert knife 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% classified 6.0% restricted 15.0% Mythical 0.9% Uncommon 1.4% pink 9.2% mil spec 13.4% #d32ee6 7.1% industrial 3.4% Legendary 4.1% consumer 4.4% #4b69ff 12.9% blue 13.0% #8847ff 4.3% #b0c3d9 4.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.85 on average: an expected loss of $6.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt