---
title: "Kilowatt case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Kilowatt ($3.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.81% from 34 items with odds, observed 89.21% over 136 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/kilowatt
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Kilowatt](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/kilowatt)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Kilowatt

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/kilowatt?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/kilowatt?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/kilowatt) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/kilowatt?window=all)

Price · $3.99

Advertised RTP · 90.81% · EV $3.62 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.21% · 136 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 5 openings · below min

7 days · 89.21% ±20.22 136 openings

30 days · 89.21% ±20.22 136 openings

since tracking started · 89.21% ±20.22 136 openings

-0.5% 91.0% 182.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/kilowatt?window=24h) | 5 | 76.39% ±105.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/kilowatt?window=7d) | 136 | 89.21% ±20.2 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/kilowatt) | 136 | 89.21% ±20.2 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/kilowatt?window=all) | 136 | 89.21% ±20.2 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 208 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $405 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 55,556 | $200 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55,556 | $193 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 26,316 | $138 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $99.58 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $75.90 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,004 | $53.38 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,355 | $45.95 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 1,294 | $45.44 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 1,028 | $42.84 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 1,110 | $41.55 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,028 | $40.72 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 697 | $34.68 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 655 | $34.66 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 379 | $27.92 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $16.25 | 4.3% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $11.37 | 4.9% | 7 | 3.2 | 2.16× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $7.15 | 7.2% | 11 | 7.5 | 1.46× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $6.53 | 7.5% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.58× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $5.78 | 7.4% | 6 | 9.6 | 0.62× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $4.12 | 9.2% | 11 | 16.9 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.78 | 9.5% | 16 | 19.0 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.43 | 8.3% | 22 | 18.3 | 1.20× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $3.17 | 7.3% | 15 | 17.2 | 0.87× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $3.01 | 6.7% | 17 | 16.8 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $2.38 | 4.5% | 12 | 14.1 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $2.37 | 4.6% | 20 | 14.5 | 1.38× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1.41 | 2.1% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.87× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.10 | 1.4% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.75 | 0.8% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.75 | 0.8% | 9 | 8.0 | 1.13× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.71 | 0.7% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.19× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.66 | 0.6% | 13 | 7.1 | 1.84× |
| [Tec-9 \| Slag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $0.51 | 0.4% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/kilowatt/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=kilowatt)

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $3.99 $6.53 1.64x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $3.99 $0.75 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) [GiganticNax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GiganticNax) $3.99 $3.43 0.86x 2026-11-10 19:24 UTC

[MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) [Незнающий побед](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8E%D1%89%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B4) $3.99 $0.75 0.19x 2026-11-10 16:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [Незнающий побед](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8E%D1%89%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B4) $3.99 $3.78 0.95x 2026-11-10 16:02 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $3.99 $4.12 1.03x 2026-11-09 19:47 UTC

[MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $3.99 $0.75 0.19x 2026-11-09 19:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $3.99 $0.66 0.17x 2026-11-09 19:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $3.99 $6.53 1.64x 2026-11-09 19:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $3.99 $11.37 2.85x 2026-11-09 19:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $3.99 | 90.81% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.99 | 94.00% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% Immortal 0.1% Covert 0.0% red 0.5% covert knife 0.2% gold 0.1% Ancient 0.2% pink 7.1% Classified 7.8% Legendary 17.3% classified 16.9% violet 26.0% #8847ff 7.0% restricted 10.0% Rare 3.6% milspec 3.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.81 on average: an expected loss of $9.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt