---
title: "King case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "King ($17.12) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.95% from 49 items with odds, observed 105.12% over 96 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/king
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [King](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/king)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · King

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/king?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/king?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/king) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/king?window=all)

Price · $17.12

Advertised RTP · 93.95% · EV $16.08 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 105.12% · 96 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 89 openings · below min

30 days · 96 openings · below min

since tracking started · 96 openings · below min

81.0% 106.5% 132.0%

**Small sample.** 96 openings and 19.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/king?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/king?window=7d) | 89 | 107.10% ±24.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/king) | 96 | 105.12% ±23.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/king?window=all) | 96 | 105.12% ±23.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 96 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,593 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,399 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $2,208 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $2,122 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $1,260 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 55,556 | $637 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14,493 | $378 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 9,804 | $306 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,714 | $267 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $252 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,538 | $207 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 1,185 | $147 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 745 | $127 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 525 | $104 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 517 | $97.55 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 371 | $96.43 | 1.6% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 247 | $77.22 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 204 | $73.38 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $59.17 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $53.33 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $45.93 | 2.9% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $45.44 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $43.01 | 2.8% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $41.88 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $37.31 | 3.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $36.03 | 3.2% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $28.68 | 3.7% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.01× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $27.47 | 3.9% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.84× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $25.10 | 4.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $23.91 | 4.1% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.89× |
| [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $23.22 | 2.4% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $21.19 | 6.2% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $20.19 | 4.3% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $17.23 | 5.0% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.34× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $13.17 | 3.8% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.35× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $12.47 | 3.5% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $11.75 | 3.4% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $11.37 | 3.3% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $10.12 | 2.9% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $10.03 | 2.9% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.13× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $9.46 | 2.7% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.69× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $8.37 | 2.4% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.38× |
| [Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $7.94 | 2.2% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $6.70 | 1.9% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.40× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $4.70 | 1.3% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $3.81 | 1.0% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $3.75 | 1.0% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.28× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/king/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=king)

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $17.12 $28.68 1.68x 2026-11-08 19:04 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $17.12 $4.70 0.27x 2026-11-08 19:04 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $17.12 $127 7.43x 2026-11-08 19:04 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $17.12 $11.75 0.69x 2026-11-08 19:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $17.12 $10.03 0.59x 2026-11-08 19:03 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $17.12 $4.70 0.27x 2026-11-08 19:03 UTC

[AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $17.12 $20.19 1.18x 2026-11-08 19:03 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $17.12 $21.19 1.24x 2026-11-08 19:03 UTC

[MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $17.12 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:03 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $17.12 $11.75 0.69x 2026-11-08 19:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $17.12 | 93.95% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $17.24 | 93.30% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $17.24 | 94.52% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.9% legendary 0.0% sunny 0.0% extraordinary 0.2% epic 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% Immortal 0.7% Covert 0.7% milspec 0.9% Mythical 5.6% restricted 8.5% mil spec 9.5% classified 30.8% red 2.6% #8847ff 1.6% #d32ce6 8.1% industrial 4.5% Legendary 8.9% uncommon 4.6% Uncommon 4.5% gray 3.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.95 on average: an expected loss of $6.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt