---
title: "Lake case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lake ($0.20) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.78% from 34 items with odds, observed 94.43% over 1,005 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lake
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Lake](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lake)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Lake

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lake?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lake?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lake) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lake?window=all)

Price · $0.20

Advertised RTP · 93.78% · EV $0.19 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.43% · 1,005 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 111.15% ±15.50 131 openings

7 days · 94.43% ±5.60 1,005 openings

30 days · 94.43% ±5.60 1,005 openings

since tracking started · 94.43% ±5.60 1,005 openings

88.0% 107.7% 127.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lake?window=24h) | 131 | 111.15% ±15.5 | +2.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lake?window=7d) | 1,005 | 94.43% ±5.60 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lake) | 1,005 | 94.43% ±5.60 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lake?window=all) | 1,005 | 94.43% ±5.60 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,092 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-factory-new) | 1 in 47,619 | $7.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $7.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 38,462 | $5.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 732 | $1.56 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.34× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) | 1 in 622 | $1.33 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× |
| [SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 276 | $1.02 | 2.0% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $0.92 | 2.3% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.36× |
| [AUG \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $0.87 | 2.3% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.92× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $0.60 | 2.6% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [P90 \| Teardown (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-factory-new) | 1 in 85 | $0.59 | 3.7% | 16 | 12.8 | 1.25× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 74 | $0.51 | 3.7% | 15 | 14.7 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $0.47 | 4.4% | 23 | 19.1 | 1.20× |
| [G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $0.45 | 4.4% | 20 | 19.9 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.33 | 6.0% | 28 | 37.5 | 0.75× |
| [SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.33 | 5.4% | 41 | 33.5 | 1.22× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.30 | 7.5% | 46 | 51.2 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.30 | 6.6% | 39 | 44.9 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.26 | 7.5% | 59 | 59.0 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.20 | 8.6% | 78 | 88.4 | 0.88× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.18 | 4.0% | 50 | 45.6 | 1.10× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.18 | 4.0% | 39 | 45.6 | 0.86× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.16 | 3.6% | 52 | 45.6 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.15 | 3.3% | 32 | 45.6 | 0.70× |
| [P90 \| Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.14 | 3.1% | 42 | 45.6 | 0.92× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.13 | 2.9% | 46 | 45.6 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.06 | 1.3% | 45 | 45.6 | 0.99× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.06 | 1.3% | 41 | 45.6 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.06 | 1.3% | 54 | 45.6 | 1.18× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.05 | 1.1% | 50 | 45.6 | 1.10× |
| [AUG \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.05 | 1.1% | 44 | 45.6 | 0.96× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.05 | 1.1% | 54 | 45.6 | 1.18× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.04 | 0.9% | 51 | 45.6 | 1.12× |
| [SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.03 | 0.7% | 46 | 45.6 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.03 | 0.7% | 50 | 45.6 | 1.10× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/lake/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=lake)

[P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-minimal-wear) [темный срун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D1%81%D1%80%D1%83%D0%BD) $0.20 $0.20 1.00x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-field-tested) [Сладкий Бубалех\<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%91%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%85%3C3) $0.20 $0.05 0.25x 2026-11-11 07:18 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-minimal-wear) [Сладкий Бубалех\<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%91%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%85%3C3) $0.20 $0.05 0.25x 2026-11-11 07:18 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) [Сладкий Бубалех\<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%91%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%85%3C3) $0.20 $0.04 0.20x 2026-11-11 07:18 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-factory-new) [Сладкий Бубалех\<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%91%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%85%3C3) $0.20 $0.18 0.90x 2026-11-11 07:18 UTC

[P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-minimal-wear) [Сладкий Бубалех\<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%91%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%85%3C3) $0.20 $0.20 1.00x 2026-11-11 07:18 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Сладкий Бубалех\<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%91%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%85%3C3) $0.20 $0.06 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:18 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [Сладкий Бубалех\<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%91%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%85%3C3) $0.20 $0.13 0.65x 2026-11-11 07:18 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-minimal-wear) [Varkymer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Varkymer) $0.20 $0.03 0.15x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC

[SG 553 | Waves Perforated (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-minimal-wear) [Varkymer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Varkymer) $0.20 $0.03 0.15x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.20 | 93.78% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.20 | 94.00% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 4.2% industrial 40.2% #87c7ff 0.0% Industrial Grade 0.0% consumer 8.9% mil spec 4.3% #4b69ff 1.5% restricted 5.5% #8847ff 3.4% Rare 7.2% blue 8.1% Common 12.5% #777777 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.78 on average: an expected loss of $6.22 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt