---
title: "Leonida case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Leonida ($14.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.06% from 40 items with odds, observed 97.52% over 352 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/leonida
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Leonida](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/leonida)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Leonida

A case on CSGORUN (gta2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/leonida?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/leonida?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/leonida) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/leonida?window=all)

Price · $14.99

Advertised RTP · 94.06% · EV $14.10 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.52% · 352 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 64 openings · below min

7 days · 97.52% ±10.31 352 openings

30 days · 97.52% ±10.31 352 openings

since tracking started · 97.52% ±10.31 352 openings

67.0% 92.3% 117.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/leonida?window=24h) | 64 | 92.34% ±24.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/leonida?window=7d) | 352 | 97.52% ±10.3 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/leonida) | 352 | 97.52% ±10.3 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/leonida?window=all) | 352 | 97.52% ±10.3 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 383 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $767 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 125,000 | $726 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40,000 | $469 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-factory-new) | 1 in 23,810 | $431 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 13,158 | $338 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,425 | $200 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-field-tested) | 1 in 2,179 | $168 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-factory-new) | 1 in 1,376 | $130 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-well-worn) | 1 in 769 | $125 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 310 | $84.13 | 1.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 266 | $80.07 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $55.73 | 2.9% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $52.72 | 3.4% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.45× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $40.84 | 4.0% | 2 | 5.3 | 0.37× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $40.83 | 3.8% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.18× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $38.31 | 3.9% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $34.24 | 4.9% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $29.47 | 6.2% | 8 | 11.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $29.26 | 4.6% | 14 | 8.4 | 1.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $24.04 | 5.7% | 15 | 12.9 | 1.17× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $22.40 | 11.8% | 23 | 28.4 | 0.81× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $15.84 | 8.4% | 23 | 28.8 | 0.80× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $13.48 | 6.1% | 19 | 24.5 | 0.78× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $12.80 | 3.2% | 11 | 13.7 | 0.81× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $11.79 | 3.0% | 20 | 13.7 | 1.47× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $10.26 | 2.6% | 17 | 13.7 | 1.25× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $8.90 | 2.2% | 15 | 13.7 | 1.10× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $8.89 | 2.2% | 12 | 13.7 | 0.88× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $8.71 | 2.2% | 19 | 13.7 | 1.39× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $7.82 | 2.0% | 15 | 13.7 | 1.10× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $6.04 | 1.5% | 11 | 13.7 | 0.81× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $4.99 | 1.3% | 16 | 13.7 | 1.17× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $4.63 | 1.2% | 8 | 13.7 | 0.59× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $4.11 | 1.0% | 9 | 13.7 | 0.66× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $3.77 | 1.0% | 16 | 13.7 | 1.17× |
| [XM1014 \| Red Python (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-python-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $3.04 | 0.8% | 13 | 13.7 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $3.02 | 0.8% | 9 | 13.7 | 0.66× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.97 | 0.8% | 13 | 13.7 | 0.95× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $2.44 | 0.6% | 9 | 13.7 | 0.66× |
| [XM1014 \| Red Python (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-python-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $2.06 | 0.6% | 18 | 16.5 | 1.09× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/leonida/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=leonida)

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $14.99 $12.80 0.85x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[P2000 | Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $14.99 $8.71 0.58x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $14.99 $55.73 3.72x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $14.99 $13.48 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[MP9 | Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $14.99 $22.40 1.49x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[Tec-9 | Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $14.99 $8.89 0.59x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) [Дмитрий Скворцов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%A1%D0%BA%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%86%D0%BE%D0%B2) $14.99 $29.26 1.95x 2026-11-11 11:22 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) [オタク](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E3%82%AA%E3%82%BF%E3%82%AF) $14.99 $10.26 0.68x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) [オタク](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E3%82%AA%E3%82%BF%E3%82%AF) $14.99 $8.90 0.59x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) [Алексей Юрпалов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%AE%D1%80%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2) $14.99 $10.26 0.68x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 15:30 UTC | $14.99 | 94.06% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $14.99 | 94.00% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% extraordinary 9.3% Extraordinary 0.0% mil spec 22.5% gold 2.1% classified 20.0% restricted 17.6% Rare 3.6% #8847ff 3.6% pink 7.1% violet 7.1% rare 3.6% Legendary 3.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.06 on average: an expected loss of $5.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt