---
title: "Liquid team case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Liquid team ($10.78) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.95% from 42 items with odds, observed 46.09% over 5 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/liquid-team
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Liquid team](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/liquid-team)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Liquid team

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/liquid-team?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/liquid-team?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/liquid-team) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/liquid-team?window=all)

Price · $10.78

Advertised RTP · 93.95% · EV $10.13 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 46.09% · 5 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 4 openings · below min

30 days · 5 openings · below min

since tracking started · 5 openings · below min

-0.5% 123.8% 248.0%

**Small sample.** 5 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/liquid-team?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/liquid-team?window=7d) | 4 | 53.86% ±193.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/liquid-team) | 5 | 46.09% ±173.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/liquid-team?window=all) | 5 | 46.09% ±173.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $13.2K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $9,837 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,395 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $4,251 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,618 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,205 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,179 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,079 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $816 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $563 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $488 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $366 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $359 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 4,926 | $183 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 6,098 | $177 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 3,876 | $155 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,160 | $106 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 609 | $79.44 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 413 | $63.61 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 245 | $56.96 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $35.25 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $34.32 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $29.58 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $28.75 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $23.45 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $22.94 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $22.03 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $21.54 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $18.84 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $14.02 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $13.66 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $11.75 | 6.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $10.12 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $10.04 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $9.58 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $6.92 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $6.29 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $5.51 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $5.42 | 3.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $3.69 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $2.38 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $1.62 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/liquid_team/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=liquid-team)

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) [Elfman](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Elfman) $10.78 $2.38 0.22x 2026-11-08 21:15 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $10.79 $3.69 0.34x 2026-11-04 20:43 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) [±Бąŧя±•](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C2%B1%D0%91%C4%85%C5%A7%D1%8F%C2%B1%E2%80%A2) $10.79 $5.42 0.50x 2026-11-04 17:30 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) [±Бąŧя±•](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C2%B1%D0%91%C4%85%C5%A7%D1%8F%C2%B1%E2%80%A2) $10.79 $11.75 1.09x 2026-11-04 17:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $10.78 | 93.95% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $10.79 | 93.87% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.79 | 96.60% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 1.7% legendary 0.0% epic 0.0% gold 0.0% restricted 19.5% covert knife 0.0% Immortal 0.0% pink 24.0% red 2.5% rare 0.9% classified 22.0% #d32ce6 3.7% Legendary 6.1% Classified 6.1% #d32ee6 6.6% uncommon 6.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.95 on average: an expected loss of $6.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt