---
title: "Lucia case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lucia ($24.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 40 items with odds, observed 100.04% over 674 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lucia
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Lucia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lucia)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Lucia

A case on CSGORUN (gta2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lucia?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lucia?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lucia) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lucia?window=all)

Price · $24.99

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $23.49 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.04% · 674 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94 openings · below min

7 days · 100.04% ±7.01 674 openings

30 days · 100.04% ±7.01 674 openings

since tracking started · 100.04% ±7.01 674 openings

74.5% 93.8% 113.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lucia?window=24h) | 94 | 93.67% ±18.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lucia?window=7d) | 674 | 100.04% ±7.01 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lucia) | 674 | 100.04% ±7.01 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/lucia?window=all) | 674 | 100.04% ±7.01 | +1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 713 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $1,378 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $1,079 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $816 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 29,412 | $642 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13,158 | $464 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,494 | $421 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,058 | $297 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,560 | $237 | 0.6% | 3 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 866 | $178 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 433 | $162 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.21× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 242 | $123 | 2.2% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 163 | $101 | 2.6% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $82.12 | 3.1% | 11 | 6.3 | 1.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $70.10 | 3.7% | 14 | 8.8 | 1.58× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $59.40 | 4.2% | 17 | 11.9 | 1.43× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $49.50 | 7.2% | 20 | 24.3 | 0.82× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $44.37 | 4.6% | 18 | 17.5 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $37.31 | 6.4% | 35 | 28.6 | 1.22× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $35.58 | 6.4% | 41 | 30.2 | 1.36× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $32.80 | 7.6% | 33 | 38.8 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $32.05 | 5.2% | 25 | 27.2 | 0.92× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $31.71 | 6.7% | 36 | 35.1 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $25.99 | 8.9% | 60 | 57.2 | 1.05× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $22.37 | 3.3% | 19 | 25.1 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $22.37 | 3.3% | 26 | 25.1 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $19.80 | 3.0% | 21 | 25.1 | 0.84× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $19.38 | 2.9% | 20 | 25.1 | 0.80× |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $15.79 | 2.4% | 27 | 25.1 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $11.48 | 1.7% | 22 | 25.1 | 0.88× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $10.24 | 1.5% | 22 | 25.1 | 0.88× |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $10.09 | 1.5% | 27 | 25.1 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $8.95 | 1.3% | 31 | 25.1 | 1.24× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $7.96 | 1.2% | 20 | 25.1 | 0.80× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $6.89 | 1.0% | 22 | 25.1 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $6.14 | 0.9% | 16 | 25.1 | 0.64× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $5.37 | 0.8% | 22 | 25.1 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $4.98 | 0.7% | 19 | 25.1 | 0.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $4.05 | 0.6% | 31 | 25.1 | 1.24× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $3.60 | 0.5% | 25 | 25.1 | 1.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $2.79 | 0.3% | 22 | 15.4 | 1.43× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/lucia/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=lucia)

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $24.99 $2.79 0.11x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $24.99 $15.79 0.63x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) [Daive csgorun lootrun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Daive%20csgorun%20lootrun) $24.99 $6.89 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) [Re5ven csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Re5ven%20csgorun) $24.99 $4.05 0.16x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) [Re5ven csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Re5ven%20csgorun) $24.99 $15.79 0.63x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) [neyspex](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/neyspex) $24.99 $11.48 0.46x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC

[Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) [Mr\_Morom](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr_Morom) $24.99 $32.80 1.31x 2026-11-11 07:02 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) [синичка без яичка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B7%20%D1%8F%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BA%D0%B0) $24.99 $11.48 0.46x 2026-11-11 06:17 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) [синичка без яичка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B7%20%D1%8F%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BA%D0%B0) $24.99 $15.79 0.63x 2026-11-11 06:16 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) [синичка без яичка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B7%20%D1%8F%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BA%D0%B0) $24.99 $15.79 0.63x 2026-11-11 06:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $24.99 | 94.00% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 23.7% covert 4.0% epic 0.0% gold 0.1% rare 0.6% Ancient 0.6% classified 21.0% mil spec 18.1% Rare 7.3% Legendary 14.1% Mil Spec Grade 3.5% pink 3.5% #d32ee6 3.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt