---
title: "M 249 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M 249 ($0.45) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.36% from 36 items with odds, observed 97.15% over 211 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m249
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [M 249](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m249)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · M 249

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m249?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m249?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m249) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m249?window=all)

Price · $0.45

Advertised RTP · 91.36% · EV $0.41 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.15% · 211 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 39 openings · below min

7 days · 211 openings · below min

30 days · 211 openings · below min

since tracking started · 211 openings · below min

56.0% 86.8% 117.5%

**Small sample.** 211 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m249?window=24h) | 39 | 86.61% ±30.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m249?window=7d) | 211 | 97.15% ±9.43 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m249) | 211 | 97.15% ±9.43 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m249?window=all) | 211 | 97.15% ±9.43 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 211 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $241 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $84.31 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-predator-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $24.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $15.74 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,000 | $14.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40,000 | $10.25 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 9,901 | $6.80 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Warbird (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-warbird-factory-new) | 1 in 3,745 | $5.22 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M249 \| Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,316 | $3.74 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M249 \| Humidor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 618 | $2.82 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M249 \| Magma (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-factory-new) | 1 in 316 | $2.14 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M249 \| Aztec (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-factory-new) | 1 in 183 | $2.00 | 2.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| [M249 \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $1.39 | 3.1% | 5 | 1.9 | 2.57× |
| [M249 \| Midnight Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $1.22 | 3.9% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [M249 \| Deep Relief (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-deep-relief-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.91 | 4.6% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.15× |
| [M249 \| Aztec (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.84 | 5.9% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.59 | 9.1% | 19 | 13.3 | 1.42× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.59 | 7.9% | 12 | 11.6 | 1.03× |
| [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.53 | 6.0% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× |
| [M249 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.51 | 10.3% | 17 | 17.5 | 0.97× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.51 | 9.5% | 20 | 16.1 | 1.24× |
| [M249 \| Spectrogram (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectrogram-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.40 | 3.8% | 11 | 8.3 | 1.32× |
| [M249 \| Spectre (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.38 | 3.6% | 14 | 8.3 | 1.68× |
| [M249 \| Spectre (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.35 | 3.4% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.08× |
| [M249 \| Submerged (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-submerged-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.32 | 3.1% | 4 | 8.3 | 0.48× |
| [M249 \| Hypnosis (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-hypnosis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.32 | 3.1% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.84× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.26 | 2.5% | 8 | 8.3 | 0.96× |
| [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.26 | 2.5% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.08× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.25 | 2.4% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.84× |
| [M249 \| Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-bock-blocks-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.18 | 1.7% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.08× |
| [M249 \| Spectrogram (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectrogram-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.16 | 1.5% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.84× |
| [M249 \| Gator Mesh (Factory New) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.16 | 1.5% | 3 | 8.3 | 0.36× |
| [M249 \| Spectrogram (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectrogram-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.13 | 1.2% | 12 | 8.3 | 1.44× |
| [M249 \| Submerged (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-submerged-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.10 | 1.0% | 2 | 8.3 | 0.24× |
| [M249 \| Bock Blocks (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-bock-blocks-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.09 | 0.9% | 5 | 8.3 | 0.60× |
| [M249 \| Submerged (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-submerged-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.06 | 0.6% | 11 | 8.3 | 1.32× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/m249/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=m249)

[M249 | Spectrogram (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectrogram-field-tested) [ПедикПоМатеше](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%B5) $0.45 $0.13 0.29x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-minimal-wear) [ПедикПоМатеше](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%B5) $0.45 $0.59 1.31x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC

[M249 | Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-predator-field-tested) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $0.45 $0.51 1.13x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC

[M249 | Spectre (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-factory-new) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $0.45 $0.38 0.84x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC

[M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-factory-new) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $0.45 $0.51 1.13x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC

[M249 | Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-predator-field-tested) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $0.45 $0.51 1.13x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC

[M249 | Spectre (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-minimal-wear) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $0.45 $0.35 0.78x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC

[M249 | Spectrogram (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectrogram-factory-new) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $0.45 $0.40 0.89x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC

[M249 | Spectrogram (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectrogram-minimal-wear) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $0.45 $0.16 0.36x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC

[M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $0.45 $0.59 1.31x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.45 | 91.36% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.45 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 2.1% 2 3.9% Industrial Grade 0.9% consumer 3.9% Common 7.9% industrial 7.9% restricted 3.5% mil spec 5.8% Consumer Grade 17.0% Rare 15.7% Uncommon 1.3% violet 6.3% milspec 7.9% blue 3.9% #4b69ff 7.9% #5e98d9 3.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.36 on average: an expected loss of $8.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt