---
title: "M 4a 1s case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M 4a 1s ($1.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.56% from 36 items with odds, observed 95.64% over 2,441 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a1s
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [M 4a 1s](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a1s)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · M 4a 1s

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a1s?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a1s?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a1s) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a1s?window=all)

Price · $1.99

Advertised RTP · 92.56% · EV $1.84 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.64% · 2,441 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.83% ±7.63 794 openings

7 days · 95.64% ±4.35 2,441 openings

30 days · 95.64% ±4.35 2,441 openings

since tracking started · 95.64% ±4.35 2,441 openings

84.5% 92.8% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a1s?window=24h) | 794 | 92.83% ±7.63 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a1s?window=7d) | 2,441 | 95.64% ±4.35 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a1s) | 2,441 | 95.64% ±4.35 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a1s?window=all) | 2,441 | 95.64% ±4.35 | +1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,542 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $314 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $192 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $136 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43,478 | $91.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24,390 | $67.57 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 10,417 | $47.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $30.44 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 1,686 | $24.04 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 797 | $18.95 | 1.3% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 388 | $14.24 | 2.0% | 11 | 6.6 | 1.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 192 | $10.03 | 2.8% | 12 | 13.3 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 107 | $7.44 | 3.8% | 23 | 23.8 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $6.53 | 4.5% | 50 | 32.4 | 1.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $5.15 | 5.0% | 43 | 45.4 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $4.46 | 5.8% | 60 | 61.3 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $3.90 | 6.0% | 80 | 72.3 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $3.66 | 5.8% | 82 | 74.1 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.66 | 7.5% | 127 | 132.7 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $2.24 | 8.7% | 168 | 182.6 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.10 | 8.6% | 184 | 190.8 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $2.00 | 9.1% | 228 | 212.5 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.76 | 3.7% | 100 | 99.2 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.63 | 3.5% | 104 | 99.2 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.41 | 3.0% | 101 | 99.2 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.13 | 2.4% | 82 | 99.2 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.10 | 2.3% | 98 | 99.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.04 | 2.2% | 97 | 99.2 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.90 | 1.9% | 107 | 99.2 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.78 | 1.7% | 95 | 99.2 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Minimal Wear) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.63 | 1.3% | 123 | 99.2 | 1.24× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.57 | 1.2% | 101 | 99.2 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.46 | 1.0% | 77 | 99.2 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.44 | 0.9% | 81 | 99.2 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.40 | 0.8% | 108 | 99.2 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.30 | 0.6% | 91 | 99.2 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.25 | 0.5% | 104 | 99.2 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/m4a1s/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=m4a1s)

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $0.25 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $1.04 0.52x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $0.40 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $1.76 0.88x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $0.44 0.22x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $1.63 0.82x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $1.41 0.71x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $2.00 1.01x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $0.90 0.45x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $2.24 1.13x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.99 | 92.56% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.99 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.2% covert 0.0% epic 0.0% restricted 15.9% mil spec 7.8% #d32ce6 0.3% Mythical 14.0% Classified 4.2% violet 4.2% pink 2.8% uncommon 7.2% #4b69ff 8.4% Uncommon 7.8% #8847ff 11.7% Mil Spec Grade 3.9% light blue 3.9% Rare 3.9% blue 3.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.56 on average: an expected loss of $7.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt