---
title: "M 4a 4 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M 4a 4 ($2.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.51% from 36 items with odds, observed 90.11% over 264 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a4
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [M 4a 4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a4)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · M 4a 4

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a4?window=all)

Price · $2.49

Advertised RTP · 90.51% · EV $2.25 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.11% · 264 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 51.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 19 openings · below min

7 days · 90.11% ±9.37 264 openings

30 days · 90.11% ±9.37 264 openings

since tracking started · 90.11% ±9.37 264 openings

41.0% 76.8% 112.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a4?window=24h) | 19 | 76.71% ±34.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a4?window=7d) | 264 | 90.11% ±9.37 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a4) | 264 | 90.11% ±9.37 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m4a4?window=all) | 264 | 90.11% ±9.37 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 305 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $351 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $296 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $159 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $97.68 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $89.56 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $53.92 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 16,129 | $37.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $31.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,532 | $23.77 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,093 | $17.83 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 380 | $13.01 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-factory-new) | 1 in 219 | $9.61 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $7.29 | 3.0% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $5.45 | 3.7% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $5.37 | 5.2% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $4.85 | 5.5% | 12 | 7.8 | 1.53× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $4.05 | 6.6% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $3.97 | 6.0% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $3.60 | 6.5% | 20 | 12.5 | 1.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.17 | 8.5% | 18 | 18.4 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $2.98 | 10.8% | 27 | 25.0 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.81 | 9.1% | 27 | 22.2 | 1.22× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.73 | 9.2% | 23 | 23.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.78 | 3.1% | 8 | 12.1 | 0.66× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.44 | 2.5% | 6 | 12.1 | 0.49× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.38 | 2.4% | 11 | 12.1 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.14 | 2.0% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.82× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.87 | 1.5% | 13 | 12.1 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.84 | 1.5% | 16 | 12.1 | 1.32× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.82 | 1.4% | 11 | 12.1 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.76 | 1.3% | 18 | 12.1 | 1.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.75 | 1.3% | 13 | 12.1 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.66 | 1.2% | 9 | 12.1 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.56 | 1.0% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.82× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 | 0.8% | 11 | 12.1 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.37 | 0.7% | 13 | 12.1 | 1.07× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/m4a4/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=m4a4)

[M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $2.49 $0.82 0.33x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [cloudyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cloudyy) $2.49 $3.60 1.45x 2026-11-11 06:39 UTC

[M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-factory-new) [cloudyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cloudyy) $2.49 $0.84 0.34x 2026-11-11 06:39 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/1) $2.49 $3.60 1.45x 2026-11-10 22:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) [1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/1) $2.49 $1.14 0.46x 2026-11-10 22:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) [1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/1) $2.49 $4.05 1.63x 2026-11-10 22:54 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) [1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/1) $2.49 $3.97 1.59x 2026-11-10 22:54 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) [Luis](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Luis) $2.49 $0.66 0.27x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) [Luis](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Luis) $2.49 $0.56 0.22x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) [Luis](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Luis) $2.49 $2.73 1.10x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.49 | 90.51% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.49 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #eb4b4b 0.0% mil spec 15.6% covert 0.0% classified 0.0% blue 11.9% Legendary 4.1% Rare 4.1% Mythical 7.9% #8847ff 11.8% restricted 20.5% #d32ee6 2.2% violet 14.0% milspec 4.0% industrial 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.51 on average: an expected loss of $9.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt